“These are the best jobs numbers of our lives”…Capt Ed at Hot Air, NYT: Yeah, Everything We Knew About The Jobs Market Was Wrong.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released the jobs number for November and the results are astoundingly excellent. November jobs gains 266,000; the year-over-year wage growth is 3.1% with non-supervisory wages growing double the rate of supervisory wages. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 3.5 percent.
Additionally, September was revised up by 13,000 from +180,000 to +193,000, and the change for October was revised up by 28,000 from +128,000 to +156,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 41,000 more than previously reported. [Full BLS Report Here]
Also in November, 1.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force. This is a reduction of 432,000 from a year earlier. Those additional jobs are not counted in any labor report because those returning workers were previously not looking for employment; they came off the sidelines and entered the workforce. AMERICA IS WORKING AGAIN !
The pundits are shocked, s.h.o.c.k.e.d!. . . .
Today, NYT’s Neil Irwin deserves some kudos for admitting that the “experts” got it wrong — and that it was “an extremely costly mistake”:Well, you could have left out that part about the jobs market.
Still, there is a bigger lesson contained in the data, one that is important beyond any one month’s tally of the job numbers: that the American economy is capable of cranking at a higher level than conventional wisdom held as recently as a few years ago. As the economy continues to grow well above what once seemed like its potential, without inflation or other clear signs of overheating, it’s clearer that the old view of its potential was an extremely costly mistake.This in fact was precisely the argument Trump made in 2015-16, and that the regulatory and monetary policies of the Obama era were holding back a bigger expansion. Media analysts largely ridiculed the idea, even after it began paying off in mid-2017 and later again in early 2018 after the tax-reform package passed. However, the signs were there all along, especially in wage stagnation. Having spent the last decade paying close attention to the data produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and historical models, I have long argued that the stagnation of wages both before and especially after the Great Recession pointed to an underuse of labor in the US economy, and that government policies were getting in the way.
Rather than recognize that the supply-demand tension demonstrated this rather amply, media analysts preferred to argue instead that traditional supply-and-demand dynamics no longer applied to jobs markets, an absurd claim. It was made for two reasons — to claim that Barack Obama had created “full employment,” and that Trump couldn’t possibly succeed. And for a long time, even policymakers clung to that view, at significant cost to workers:. . .