WUWT has the Scorecard: How Well Does NOAA’s Hurricane Outlook Actually Perform? 26 Years of Forecasts vs. Reality
Let's check the data:
NOAA’s May outlooks land within their stated range for named storms roughly 17 of 25 years; about 68%, just shy of their own 70% confidence target. The hurricane count accuracy is similar. That said, NOAA aims for a range (not a point forecast), so some “hits” are easier than others in wide-range years.
So, a little better than a coin toss...
One of President Trump's bête noire in the Senate, Republican Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who voted to convict in Trump's impeachment trial in 2021, lost his primary battle, gaining only 25% of the vote in a three-way contest, that saw Trump-endorsed Julia Letlow and John Flemming advance to a run-off election for the party’s nomination. He never disavowed the impeachment vote despite subsequent evidence showing the shady origins of the charges, although he tried to ingratiate himself with Trump later. Joe Chalfant at TownHall, RINO Sen. Bill Cassidy Loses Historic Senate Primary Race. Sundance at CTH is pleased that Incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy Loses His Senate Seat in Primary – Places Third, Will Not Be in Runoff. At Althouse, "His disloyalty to the man who got him elected is now a part of legend, and it’s nice to see that his political career is OVER." "Said Trump, in social media, quoted in "Trump Gets Revenge Against Republican Who Voted to Convict Him" (Bloomburg)...Conceding, Cassidy said "I find that people of character and integrity don’t spend their time attacking people on the internet."" When one strikes at the king... At TownHall, Salena Zito thinks Experts Miss Trump's Enduring Presence in American Politics in Indiana Races. Sundance notes President Trump Blasts Colorado Republican Lauren Boebert for Campaigning with DeceptiCON Thomas Massie in Kentucky.
Sauron's Eye reports U.K. health secretary will run for prime minister after challenging Starmer's leadership in scathing resignation letter. Meanwhile, it is unreliably reported by the Northern Barbarian @xnoesbueno, "Sir Keir reportedly standing down. Sounds like a win for Team Britain. Nothing on Starmer's X feed. I have to assume he'll have some self serving excuses. But the fact is, after he smeared these people repeatedly, they were the ones who showed and behaved like Englishmen today. And it was clearly a cross section of native Britons, to include those of non-native descent who have chosen to adopt the ways of Britain. And clearly it finally got through to him. May he come to understand how he has defamed them and injured them." Quote Tommy Robinson @TRobinsonNewEra, "Everyone who turned up today and behaved impeccably ended this tyrant . Thank you x.com/basilthegreat/…" Quote Basil the Great @BasilTheGreat, "KEIR STARMER HAS ANNOUNCED HE IS STANDING DOWN AS PRIME MINISTER. It's finally happened." At Da Mail, DAN HODGES says My sources tell me Keir has decided to stand down, but he'll do it on his terms. wretchardthecat @wretchardthecat, "The dueling rallies in the UK the media narrative pro-Palestine "nakba" rally vs the Tommy Robinson Unite the Kingdom that were held largely peacefully were driven by rival strategies. Keir Starmer took a very hard line against Robinson, going so far as to deploy facial recognition vans in the Unite rally route to signal to his base that he was truly a man of the Left, something his Labour leadership rivals have accused him of abandoning. Robinson by contrast wanted to legitimize his issues and deliberately turned the Unite the Kingdom event into a conservative Woodstock. This was probably as much to mollify class suspicions as ideological ones. Robinson is the wrong kind of guy, after all. Not a Sir, not Oxbridge. He had to show he wasn't going to lose it on stage and he didn't. On the whole the event was Tommy's to lose and he didn't." wretchardthecat @wretchardthecat, "In fact I am struck by the embarassing degree to which which snobbery plays a role in Left/Right politics. Progressives have by imperceptibly slow degrees become the party of respectability, toffs, dignity and propriety. The real emotional fuel for Trump hatred is only partly fueled by logical disagreement. Most of it comes from his choice of furniture, design of ballroom, the ghastly red caterpillar cap, vulgar speech and most of all 'bigly'. They might forgive all else, but never 'bigly'. Over in the UK Starmer's accent proclaims him as estimable and educated. And Lord Ali, Lord Hermer and Lord Mandelson and those in league with him have even been ennobled. By contrast Robinson is described as dressed in "football casual". So while the division between Western liberals and conservatives is probably determined by disagreements over public policy it is in part driven by social self-identification." It was "big-league", but never mind.
Lee Smith at Tablet on Trump's Strange Trip to China. "The U.S. war against Iran hasn’t ushered in American decline. It’s exposed China’s weakness." From the Free Bacon, Trump Keeps His Friends Close, But China Closer. Sundance hosts as Susan Kokinda Gives Promethean PAC Analysis on Trump’s China Visit and Xi’s Remarks about “Thucydides Trap” and notes President Sheinbaum and President Trump Have Cordial Trade Call as First Sinaloa Official is Nabbed by U.S. Federal Agents.
At Mil.com, Pentagon Rushes to Buy 10,000 Missiles as Iran Has Depleted Stockpiles, "Agreements with multiple contractors will lead to buying cheaper cruise missiles in bulk." Cheaper by the gross.
Bob Graboyes at Bastiat's Window has the Virginia Supreme Court Ruling Made E-Z, "The logic was simple: "Before an election" means "before the first votes are cast."" AG @AGHamilton29, "You get the game here, right? They file an absurd motion asking the Supreme Court to rule on a case where it clearly has no jurisdiction. Then when it obviously refuses (w 0 dissents), they accuse it of corruption to justify trying to stack the court. Shameful." Quote Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta @malcolmkenyatta "The Supreme Court is corrupt." RedState's Nick Arama thinks Kamala Harris 'No Bad Ideas' Video for Dems Is So Awful It Goes Viral - Then She Makes It Worse. Pat Adams @PatAdams96, "Kamala Harris is now calling for Democrats to hold a “No Bad Idea Brainstorm” where they discuss: - Abolishing the Electoral College - Packing the Supreme Court - Making Puerto Rico and D.C. states “We’ve got to neutralize these red states from cheating!”"
Stephen Moore at Hat Hair says Angry About High Prices? Blame Biden and Big Government! From Twitchy, Happy Biden Family? Try '10% for the Big Guy,' Crack Pipes, and the Ignored Granddaughter and Journos Are Noticing This 2-Year Old Video of Biden Challenging Trump Had a LOT of Edits.
At NYPo, Billionaire Ken Griffin ghosts Mamdani after NYC ‘Tax the Rich’ video flap. From Politico, Newsom appoints former CFPB head to lead California consumer agency. "Rohit Chopra was ousted as director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau by the Trump administration last year." Tim O'Brien at PJM sees Fetterman’s Backyard Is Going Full Socialist With Proposed Parental Leave Mandate. Derek Hunter at TownHall finds it odd Democrats Refuse To Even Talk To the American People Anymore. Driscoll at Insty sees BILL KRISTOL FINALLY MAKES IT OFFICIAL: Stephen L. Miller @redsteeze, "It would just be refreshing if every other person employed by the bulwark expressed this level of professional honesty. You took the money so just admit it." Quote, "Bill Kristol @BillKristol "I’m pro-freedom, pro-law and order, pro-limited government, and pro-the Declaration and the Constitution. And so today I’m a Democrat."
Leslie Eastman at LI, Spencer Pratt Vows to Bring Art Deco Architecture Back to Los Angeles "Meanwhile, what is Pratt’s opponent promising? Free teeth for meth-heads."
Jen O'Connell at RedState, Democrat SOS and Media Blast CO Gov. Polis for Tina Peters' Commutation; Hear How He Sets Them Straight
Driscoll cites Power Line CRY HAVOC AND LET SLIP THE RAPE DOGS OF WAR! Rape Dogs: The Laff Riot.
Captain Allen @CptAllenHistory, "Bill Maher just delivered the most clear-eyed, no-bullshit monologue on Israel & antisemitism you’ll hear from any mainstream voice in 2026. “Israel was founded on the idea that antisemitism made a Jewish state necessary ... Can you honestly listen to this rhetoric and not see why that turned out to be true?..."It's worse than you think. The IDF has trained dogs to pilot aircraft. Fully 25% of the sorties against Iran and Hezbollah have been carried out by Belgian Malinois. pic.twitter.com/WzuVTFXYFt
— Jerusalem of Iron 🇮🇱 עם ישראל חי (@jerusalemofiron) May 14, 2026
With Taylor Carpenter
Blue and gold macaws are not native to Caracas. But over the past two decades their numbers in Venezuela's capital have skyrocketed, with hundreds of these birds now flying freely across the city, and dazzling locals with their colorful feathers and peculiar calls.
The birds have become a symbol of Caracas and formed a special bond with some people, who leave food for them in their balconies or gardens. But this unique relationship between humans and exotic birds is now under threat as city authorities cut down the palm trees that the macaws depend on to raise their offspring.
Maria Lourdes Gonzalez, a biologist who studies the macaws says that in the following years, the city's population of blue and gold macaws could plummet. "If they don't find a place where they can breed, there will be no new generation of macaws" she said at her office in Caracas' Simon Bolivar University.
Gonzalez explained that the macaws only nest in a palm tree known as the chaguaramo, or the royal palm. And they only use chaguaramos with no leaves whose trunks are decaying and have been partially hollowed out by insects.
Officials are taking these old palm trees down in several parks and public spaces as they try to beautify the city ,and prevent rotting tree trunks from falling on people. It's a policy that makes sense from the perspective of a city planner, Gonzalez explained, but one that threatens the macaws.
"These are not birds that make nests out of branches or twigs," Gonzalez said. "They occupy holes inside old tree trunks, and in Caracas, they only use the chaguaramo trees."
Sauron's Eye whines U.S. moving to indict Cuba's Raúl Castro, sources say. OK, but don't expect to ever hold a trial. At Am Spec Martin Arostegui sees The ‘Donroe’ Doctrine Comes Into Its Own. "Spain and the UK are emerging as the big losers." Speaking of the UK, Hat Hair's Beege Welborn predicts Tomorrow's 'Unite the Kingdom' Rally Looking Like Starmer's Planning Something Today MORE. Will he get his very own Charlottesville or J6? Sasha Stone says Surprise, Trump Isn’t Hitler After All.
At ToI, Saudi warplanes struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq during war, sources say "Riyadh said to have targeted sites near the kingdom’s northern border from which drone and missiles were launched at Gulf states; Kuwait also said to have fired on Iraq." and UAE secretly launched strikes on Iran during war, attacked oil refinery — report. Maybe it wasn't such a smart move to missle everybody in range. Hat Hair's Capt. Ed has 'Ceasefire' Updates: Israel Hits Top Hamas Commander; Iran Escalating Executions and Trump Offers Iran 20 Years – Or Annhilation. Door #2. Bob Spencer at PJM fears Trump is Waging War on the Time Clock.
To no one's surprise, SCOTUS has just unanimously declined Virginia's plea for them to step in and overrule SCOTVA's ruling again the Spandander redistricting. Capt. Ed, BREAKING: Unanimous SCOTUS Rejects VA Dems Attempt to Reinstate Referendum Matt Vespa at TownHall notes The Supreme Court Just Ruled on VA's Motion Over Their Redrawn Map. Meltdowns Are Coming. Nick Sortor @nicksortor, "IT'S OFFICIAL — Virginia Democrats have just been dealt the FINAL BLOW in their attempt to illegally force through their gerrymandered map for the 2026 US House elections SCOTUS just UNANIMOUSLY denied their request to hear the case on the map. MASSIVE blow to the Dems!" PJM's Stephen Kruiser, We Never Want to Hear 'House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries'. At NYPo, Jonathan Turley frets Virginia’s gerrymander flop leaves Democrats frustrated — and dangerous. AMAC thinks Democrats Reveal “Rule or Ruin” Core on Virginia Redistricting. In response, Ro Khanna proposes packing the court. FischerKing @FischerKing64, "Court-packing is a completely mainstream view on the political left now. They see it as entirely justified because they are unhappy with recent decisions. They're not interested in the "judicial philosophies" behind the opinions - they just want their way. They're refreshingly honest about this." Quote Rep. Ro Khanna @RepRoKhanna, "The Supreme Court has engaged in an ugly recidivism that has marked the fastest rollback of Black political rights since Reconstruction. 18 year terms limits on Justices now. Expand the court from 9 to 13 Justices now." Hat Hair's Dave Strom says Your Offer Is Accepted, let's do it now while Trump is in office, and the Republicans (nominally) control the Congress. Bad Hombre @Badhombre, "The same Congressional Black Caucus that refuses to admit Byron Donalds, Wesley Hunt, John James, and Burgess Owens because they don’t consider them Black since they’re Republicans. Good. It’s a total joke. It can’t go away soon enough."Quote ABC News @ABC, "Almost a third of the membership of the Congressional Black Caucus are at risk of losing their seats through the 2028 election cycle as Republicans in southern states where they control the legislature move swiftly to redraw congressional maps." Breaking911 @Breaking911, "BREAKING: Longtime Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) announces he will not seek re-election." Now that he's been Gerrymandered out. At Data Republican's substack, The "Fourth Founding": How our Unelecteds Plan to Rewrite the Constitution (Part 1) "Inside the Foundation-Funded Blueprint to Restructure American Governance by the Nation's 250th Birthday."
Driscoll at Insty envisions 21st CENTURY HEADLINES: AI Might Make Campaign Ads Halfway Tolerable. Ace, Foreign Communist Candidate for LA Mayor Nithya Raman Wants to Ban Backyard BBQs Because the Transnational Invaders Instinctively Make Endless War on American Normies, "Their absolute hatred of anything normal and wholesome, and their absolute determination to steal away any simple pleasure from the working and middle classes, is demonic. I'm sure you remember this same instinct in full effect during the lockdown." Liz Wheeler @Liz_Wheeler, "Spencer Pratt: I will clean up homeless encampments, address drug addicts, & prevent fires from burning down people's homes. Karen Bass: I will spend your money on teeth for meth addicts. Nithya Raman: I will ban grilling burgers in the backyard. Your choice, Los Angeles." Capt. Ed, LA Mayoral Race Focuses On the Big Problem Facing Angelenos: Grilling! UPDATE: 'Everything Is Awful'
At Da Signal, the Great Victor Davis Hanson explains The Newsom Nightmare: Why California’s Elites Refuse to Face Reality. Matt Vespa hears What If Dems Are Shut Out of the CA Gov Race? Newsom Says There's a 'Break-the-Glass' Contingency Plan. Why should they live with the rules they created to govern others?This
— Dana Loesch (@DLoesch) May 15, 2026
is
AMAZING pic.twitter.com/f5Gj1TAgP8
Taylor Lynn Carpenter is a professional parkour athlete, coach, and content creator from Hawai'i. As a hybrid athlete, she blends parkour with lifting, climbing and acrobatics to push the boundaries of human movement. Living nomadically, she competes internationally and plays a key role in the Apex School of Movement, developing programs, coaching athletes and growing local and global parkour communities. Passionate about making movement more accessible, she strives to inspire others to embrace fear, adaptability and creativity — spreading a love for movement wherever she goes.
Parkour isn’t just for extreme athletes — it’s a life skill that can help anyone navigate the world more easily, says professional parkour athlete Taylor Lynn Carpenter. She pulls off some slick vaults, jumps, dives and rolls onstage, showing how the basic movements of parkour can help you maintain mobility, mitigate injuries and rediscover your sense of adventure.
