Saturday, August 10, 2019

NOAA Ups Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

Despite the Slowest start to Atlantic Hurricane season since 2004, NOAA recently upped its forecast for the tropical storm season. Updated MD Hurricane Forecast: NOAA Expects More Storms In 2019
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that weather researchers now believe there will be more hurricanes in 2019 than previously expected.

"Current and predicted oceanic and atmospheric conditions now indicate a higher likelihood — a 45 percent chance — of an above normal season — and a reduced likelihood — a 20 percent chance — of below normal activity," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

While only two named storms have formed thus far this year, the peak months of hurricane season run from August through October.

NOAA earlier predicted nine to 15 named storms and two to four major hurricanes this year. The updated hurricane season outlook now predicts 10 to 17 named storms, of which five to nine are expected to become hurricanes. Two to four of those could become major hurricanes, according to NOAA.

"The total number of named storms and hurricanes has increased from the May outlook while the number of major hurricanes stays the same," Bell said. "However, some of those hurricanes and major hurricanes could be longer and stronger than was predicted in May because atmospheric wind patterns are expected to be more hospitable to storm formation."
I'm not a major believer in hurricane forecasting. The prediction ranges are rather broad, and easy to satisfy, and even then, the success rate isn't that awesome.

Besides, it's not really the total number that matters, it's a matter of where and how they hit. Just one can put a pretty bad hurt on your plans.

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