Bay Grasses a Mixed Bag in 2024

At the Bay Journal, Underwater grass skyrockets in parts of the Chesapeake Bay, decreases in others "One percent overall drop in underwater grass acreage Bay-wide."

In 2024, it is estimated that the abundance of underwater grasses fell by 1% in the Chesapeake Bay, despite observed gains in three out of four salinity zones. In 2024, 82,778 acres of underwater grasses were mapped in the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries, compared to 83,419 acres in 2023. The Chesapeake Bay Program’s Bay-wide Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV) Outcome remains “off-course” even as progress is made in some regions.

Scientists categorize the Bay into four salinity zones to track changes in underwater grass abundance over time, accounting for how the grass beds respond to storms, drought and other growing conditions. In 2024, researchers observed in the “very salty” Polyhaline Zone, which extends from the mouth of the Bay near Virginia Beach, Virginia up to lower Bay near the Maryland-Virginia border, a historic increase of 21,803 acres in 2023 to 24,800 acres in 2024. This is the highest coverage since annual mapping began in 1984 and is a 74% achievement of the acreage target for that region. The largest gains occurred in Mobjack Bay, Poquoson Flats and nearby Western Shore areas.

 

Eelgrass, a species of underwater grass that grows in the Polyhaline Zone, did particularly well. This species hit a low in 2019, when the Bay saw historic levels of rainfall. In recent years, eelgrass has recovered and then surpassed all previous monitoring records. Researchers say that eelgrass has moved into deeper parts of the Bay, expanding the available habitat for underwater grasses and indicating that water quality improvements are likely responsible.

“It’s just been amazing to watch the expansion of the meadows! We now have eelgrass happily growing at 8-9 feet at low tide in some places, which was unthinkable just a few years ago,” said Christopher J. Patrick, associate professor and director of the SAV Monitoring and Restoration Program at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS). “But beyond the polyhaline, it’s another example of how incredibly fast SAV can expand and recover when conditions are right. We saw the same story in the Susquehanna Flats 15 years ago. It shows that recovery isn’t incremental, it's rapid when it happens, and that gives me hope for us achieving the Chesapeake Bay wide goals in the future even if they seem far off now.”

The 2024 mapping also revealed a modest increase in the Bay’s Tidal Fresh Zone and a significant increase in the slightly salty Oligohaline Zone. In the Tidal Fresh Zone, underwater grass beds increased from an estimated 19,823 acres to 20,218 acres, a 98% achievement of the SAV target of 20,602 acres for that region. In the Oligohaline Zone, underwater grass beds increased from an estimated 3,422 acres to 4,730 acres, a 46% achievement of the 10,334-acre target.

However, underwater grass decreased by 14% in the moderately salty Mesohaline Zone, from 38,371 acres to 33,031 acres, a 27% achievement of the 120,306-acre target for that zone. Losses in the Mesohaline Zone, which is the largest zone in the Bay, mainly occurred along the Eastern Shore of Maryland in the Choptank and Little Choptank rivers, as well as in Tangier Sound.

These decreases were enough to offset gains, resulting in a 1% drop in underwater grass abundance Bay-wide. This marks a 64% achievement of the SAV Outcome’s 2025 restoration target of 130,000 acres in the 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement and 45% of the long-term target of 185,000 acres that is needed for a fully restored estuary.

My guess is that they were quite generous when they set the restoration targets, since there was probably no bay wide grass census prior to the great catastrophe of Hurricane Agnes back in 1972 which flooded the bay with freshwater and sediment and all but eliminated SAV for years. After all, more is better, right? I further posit that currently SAV are close to their current carrying capacity in the Bay, with coverage varying year to year due to weather events, and how they effect different areas. Short of a major change in the Bay, and I'm not sure what that would be, that's likely to be the story for the foreseeable future.

The Wombat has Rule Five Sunday: The End of Summer up and garnering clicks at The Other McCain.

Palm Sunday

 with  Valentina Gallego:

Palm tree bent double by Hurricane Milton is town down by city chiefs in Bradenton.

The Wombat has Rule 5 Sunday: In The Kitchen up on time and under budget.

Palm Sunday

With Nina Cola:

 

Lake One News, Palm tree survival after hurricanes: UF/IFAS tips and insights for property owners

Q: How sturdy are palm trees against a tropical storm or hurricane?

An established healthy palm will withstand a storm like Hurricane Debby without serious problems. Depending on the palm, the leaves might shred or bend at the petiole, but not sustain significant damage that would require replanting. Palms have hundreds of fibrous roots that anchor them in the group, nicely, and the trunks of palms have their vascular tissue randomly distributed throughout the trunk. They don’t run perfectly straight up and down, they “snake” their way through the trunk, and gives the palm trunk high flexibility and more resistance to breaking when compared to typical trees, like oak trees.

Q: What are the signs that your palm tree has survived or not survived? What should homeowners look for?

In this case, unless the canopy falls off, it should be fine if the palm looks similar to its appearance before the storm. It may be possible for fungal pathogens to make their way into the canopy, combined with excess rainfall, but this likely won’t manifest for a while. In an extreme event -- let’s say the canopy is completely shredded -- if you see the spear leaf expanding in the following month, the palm is fine; it just needs time to recover.

Linked at The Pirate's Cove in the weekly Sorta Blogless Sunday Pinup and links. The Wombat has Rule 5 Sunday: Where My Wolfsbane At? on time and under budget at the Other McCain.

The Wednesday Wetness

WTOP, If something disrupts the Potomac River, DC has less than 24 hours of water in supply

D.C. could be in hot water if something ever disrupts the Potomac River’s drinking water supply. That’s according to a new report outlining the devastating economic impact a disruption would cause while urging for a better backup.

“If we do have an issue here in the District of Columbia, at the Washington Aqueduct, we have approximately less than 24 hours of water in supply,” David Gaddis, the CEO and general manager of D.C. Water, said during a news conference at The Wharf on Tuesday.

The report from the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin revealed that a catastrophe on the Potomac — such as a severe drought, chemical spill, infrastructure failure or algae bloom — could disrupt the water supply for weeks. The commission found such a disruption could result in a loss of $15 billion in gross regional product within the first month.

I mean, what could go wrong? A hurricane? 

The Wombat has Rule 5 Sunday: But First, Coffee  up on time and under budget at The Other McCain.

Palm Sunday

 with some help from Instaisabella:

WaPoo, Thousands cheer on defiant palm tree as Typhoon Shanshan hits Japan

Typhoon Shanshan’s path across Japan has been closely watched by many as it blasts the country with torrential rain and raging winds. But as the deadly storm made landfall this week, others were glued to a live stream featuring a solitary palm tree standing up to the fiercely inclement weather, showing us that not all heroes wear capes — some wear fronds.

As the storm approached, the almost 12-hour stream by a Japanese weather station captured the lanky tree on the coast of Kyushu, the country’s southwestern-most main island, whipping back and forth violently — but never toppling. The dramatic display of resilience won the hearts of thousands online, many of whom flooded the comments to root for the tree — known affectionately as “Yasshi” — to survive.

Linked at The Pirate's Cove in the weekly Sorta Blogless Sunday Pinup and links. The Wombat has Rule 5 Sunday: Sunday Morning Coffee up and garnering clicks at The Other McCain.

Homemade Root Beer

Sassafras tree

A week or so ago, in the wake of Tropical Depression (formerly Hurricane Debby), I was walking up the beach, and I caught a wonderful odor of root beer. Fallen from the cliff, or maybe even washed in from elsewhere was a whole Sassafras tree, with roots intact and washed clean of dirt. The roots of Sassafras are the original  source of root beer. Over a few days, I brought a few sections of root home. On Sunday, I stripped the bark off enough them to make one small batch of root beer, using (approximately) this recipe, Homemade Sassafras Root Beer.

As I said, approximately. The recipe calls for some spices. Our spices were kind of old, so we boosted them slightly. We didn't didn't have any allspice berries, so we had to guess how much of our old allspice powder to substitute, and I think I over did it a hair. The worst part was straining the resultant cooked root and spice mash. We tried coffee filters, but they kept clogging after only a few ounces of liquid. We ended up straining it through an old (but clean)  piece of t-shirt from the rag cupboard. That worked pretty well.  The best part about it all was how it made the house smell. 

Yesterday, we got the final ingredient, the club soda, and actually mixed some of the finished root beer syrup. Not too bad! I think you can taste that we overdid the allspice, though. 

Beach Report 8/9/24 - We Survived Hurricane Debby

The remnants of Hurricane Debby passed by last night. She was not much of a rain maker, but we had 30 knot sustained winds most of the night, so basically a tropical depression. The highest tide occurred early this morning, at about 2 1/2 feet over the highest astronomical tide. This afternoon, we still have cloudy skies, and strong wind

Some erosion of sand behind the north jetty at Flag Harbor. This will fill in slowly, but the real damage is that the sand washed into the channel, making it shallower. He was fishing, but he wasn't really fishing in that.

You can see the wrack line from the last high tide, at the base of the sand dunes. The next high tide, around, 7:30 tonight, will be almost as high if not a few inches higher. 

You can see  the waves eroding the base of the dunes here. The beach was extremely sandy, but I found some gravelly spots in places, and managed to eke out 7 shark's teeth, none picture worthy.

NOAA Predicts Hurricanes

 More than usual. WUWT,  NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.

Not exactly good news. That means more chances for strikes in the US, and for us locally.  Just in case you're curious as to what they will be named:

Palm Sunday

At CNN, Florida is ditching palm trees to fight the climate crisis. BI, Palm trees bend in high winds and are hard to uproot. A forest ecologist says they're perfectly designed to withstand hurricanes

Does anyone else see the contradiction? Are Miamians cutting off their nose to spite their face?

The Wombat has Rule 5 Sunday: For The Fallen up and awaiting your digital pleasure at The Other McCain. 

Flotsam and Jetsam - A Sunday Sampler

Breitbart claims an Exclusive — McCarthy Details Impeachment Inquiry Process: ‘If We Move Forward,’ It ‘Would Occur Through a Vote’ on House Floor, but we saw that yesterday. At WaEx, Jeff Van Drew slams Biden administration as 'worst' in US history due to migrant crisis. According to Hat Hair's KT, Karine Jean-Pierre wins the 'Gaslight Award of 2023' for her claim that  Joe Biden has “done more to secure the border than anybody else.” I think we can find other examples. Bob Spencer at PJM notes Even WaPo’s ‘Fact-Checker’ Has Had Enough of Biden’s Constant Lies.  At NYPo the divine Ms. Devine says Americans are getting wise to Joe Biden’s corruption — despite his media gatekeepers, but about half of them just don't care. Speaking of media gatekeepers, we have more on WaPoo's serial fabulist Phil Bump. Matt Vespa at Town Hall, Oh, There's More to This Story About WaPo’s Top Writer Having a Meltdown Over Hunter Biden as Noam Dworman responds. From Twitchy, Jonathan Turley, Miranda Devine & others eulogize #journalism after Philip Bump's meltdown and Glenn Greenwald has trouble finding the words to describe that Philip Bump meltdown.  Glenn Greenwald@ggreenwald, "There are no words I can use that would do justice to what this video shows about Bump and corporate media employees generally. He's a deeply dishonest, arrogant, weaselly, snide, condescending asshole, yet passionately devoted to the Dem Party and Biden -- ie, corporate media."

Spencer Brown at Town Hall says Watch What Happened When Biden Was Asked About Americans' Financial Struggles. "According to Biden, even though the unemployment rate jumped to 3.8 percent in August, it's fine because he's managed to keep unemployment "below 14 percent."" And at Twitchy, Biden blasted for saying 'Nobody intelligent can deny the impact of the climate crisis anymore', their go to Boogeyman. At NYPo, Kamala Harris has ‘rabbit ears’ for detecting criticism, overly sensitive, colleague says: new book. She must not be able to sleep.

Jeff Charles at Red State reports Democrats Suffer Humiliating Defeat in First Court Battle to Keep Trump off the Ballot. Don't try to feed us that 14th Amendment horseshit. At ET, DOJ Attempt to Block Trump Deposition Fails Again in Strzok lawsuit.

Jeff Charles also cites a WSJ Poll: Trump's Primary Lead Just Doubled, Spelling Trouble for Primary Opponents and Biden. Anxious is anxious about how How Trump's loyal pen pals spread his message. Hat Hair's Beege Wellborn finds on TwitterX, Trump campaign goes after DeSantis on Puerto Rican statehood - steps in mierda, comments "Not a good look, you all." From Althouse, "In 2016, I asked the Lord to give us the president who loves the country more than he loves himself." ""That would be the man that’s been persecuted by the Justice Department, by the media. We need to stand with him — you’ll gain a lot more votes if you stand with him." Said "an older man with a small American flag sticking out of his shirt pocket," who posed the final question for Ron DeSantis "at a machine shop in Estherville, Iowa, last week," quoted in "Republican race remains stuck as Trump dominates heading into fall/Some campaigns don’t want to go after Trump for fear of alienating his supporters — but don’t see a path to beating him without attacking him at some point" (WaPo)." From the Victory Girls, DeSantis Declines Biden Meetup In Hurricane Idalia Cleanup. Capt. Ed, "I don’t agree with this. He IS the president. My governor is way too sharp to get trapped into a Christie bear hug with the vegetable. Biden is diminished standing there." Hat Hair's KT asks Does it matter that DeSantis has no plans to meet with Biden during president's visit to Florida? "So, no, I don’t think it matters if DeSantis meets with Biden in person." At Twitchy, Victor Shi says Ron DeSantis is 'truly evil & pathetic' for not meeting with Joe Biden. Who? Never-Trumper Kevin Williamson at NYPo, Ron DeSantis did what he does best during Hurricane Idalia: Govern. From Da Blaze, DeSantis becomes first governor to reject major Green New Deal subsidies.

TwitterX, via Hat Hair, Snek in the grass: KY gov may not follow law if McConnell retires. Chad Livengood@ChadLivengood, "Kentucky's governor won't commit to appointing a Republican if ⁦@LeaderMcConnell ⁩ resigns" Insurrection! Beege Wellborn, "I did NOT realize it was KY state law that Beshear MUST replace McConnell with a Republican. Amazing how it’s REPEATEDLY okay for a Democrat to flout whatever law doesn’t suit them. LAH-DEE-DAH and on with their lives. Try that as a Rep…oh, wait. We don’t."

Sundance at CTH is concerned that US Special Operations Command Will Deploy Argus AI Program to Scour Social Media for Disinformation, Misinformation and Malinformation, National Security Authority to Protect U.S. Internet from “Pain Points.” From NotTheBee, New York City will be using police drones on Labor Day to make sure the peasants aren't holding large parties in their backyards Hat Hair's Jazz Shaw, Arkansas judge blocks social media law, age verification. At Da Caller, SCOTUS Asked To Review State Court’s Decision To Remove Jurors With ‘Conservative Christian’ Beliefs. Great, a new way to get out of jury duty!

Tyler O'Neil at Da Wire reports THOUSANDS of Minors Went Under the Knife to ‘Affirm’ a Transgender Identity, Study Shows. From Da Caller, Mom Secures $100,000 Settlement With School That Allegedly Tried To Transition Her Daughter:  ’Sends A Clear Message’

Center for American Liberty is proud to announce a settlement in Konen v. Spreckels Union School District that resulted in a $100,000 payment by the school district to Jessica and Alicia for the violation of their rights.
Thanks for all the hard work @pnjaban, @mark_trammell,… pic.twitter.com/wdORxgueEH

— Center for American Liberty (@Liberty_Ctr) August 29, 2023

Madelein Leesman at Town Hall, A College Coach Spoke Out Against Transgenders in Women's Sports. You Won't Believe What Happened Next, “burned at the stake”, of course you believe it. Well, not literally. Mark Theissen, Alaska board of education votes to ban transgender girls from competing on high school girls teams. CBS News in Colorado, Controversy erupts in Jefferson County after the teachers union tells educators to destroy evidence of student surveys regarding gender identity. "An email from Jefferson County Education Association (JCEA) to teachers says, "if you do a questionnaire, please make it a paper and pencil activity - any digital records are more permanent and may be requested under federal law." The union also encouraged teachers to "make your notations about students and not hold on to the documents."" At the Am Mind, Jeremy Carl sees Cracks in the Rainbow. "If you were a talented young white male law student today who dreamed of being a federal judge, why would you cast your lot with a group that would actively discriminate against you and make it almost impossible for you to land a position?"

Chris Rufo at City Journal discourses on MSNBC’s War on Truth. "The left-wing news network releases a deeply misleading documentary about the reforms at New College of Florida." At Campus Reform, Universities are asking applicants about race even after affirmative action ruling as expected.

The Wreck of the Levin J. Marvel

Levin J. Marvel

Chesapeake Bay Mag, 68 Years Later, Survivor Of Deadly Bay Shipwreck Returns To Tell His Story

If asked to name the deadliest shipwrecks in Chesapeake Bay history, a person’s mind might jump to the 1800s or earlier, when ships were the most common way to transport goods and people long distances.

But the shipwreck that saw one of the Bay’s largest losses of life happened just 68 years ago, and a survivor is coming forward this month to recount the experience.

The Levin J Marvel, a schooner that took passengers out for pleasure cruises, was on a weeklong summer cruise in 1955 when Hurricane Connie, a Category Four storm, came up the Bay. The schooner sought shelter in Herring Bay, but it wasn’t enough to protect the people aboard.

On Aug. 12, 1955, the hurricane’s gale-force winds broke the Marvel apart just a quarter-mile from shore. Of the 27 people on board, 14 died. 13 others, including four crew members, were rescued. Citizens of nearby North Beach and Chesapeake Bay went to great lengths to rescue the shipwrecked victims, even forming a human chain along the jetty at Fishing Creek amid ship debris, according to the Bayside History Museum.

One of those rescued was 16-year-old John Ferguson, who had boarded the Marvel for a summer vacation with his father. His father was among the 14 who didn’t make it.

The Marvel was a three-masted 125-foot ram schooner built in 1891. It was built with a shallow draft for hauling cargo through the C&D Canal and repurposed as a pleasure cruise boat in 1945. After it tragically wrecked, the Coast Guard investigation found lacked adequate lifesaving equipment, disregarded weather forecasts and suffered from wood rot. It had apparently never been certified for passenger service. Its sinking prompted regulatory changes in the oversight of small passenger vessels.

Hmm, ignored the weather forecast, had inadequate safety gear, and wood rot. First I've heard of this wreck. But I remember the wreck of the El Toro II in 1993. Some things never change.

2022 Hurricane Season Disappoints Alarmists

At WUWT, Larry Hamlin, Despite Prediction 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Fizzles Out Below “Normal”

In late May and again in early August 2022 NOAA predicted that the year 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season (between June to end November calendar period) would be an “above normal” season with 14-21 named storms, between 6-10 hurricanes including 3-6 major hurricanes (Category 3,4 and 5) as shown in NOAA’s diagram below.

Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science/Tropical Meteorology Project has compiled the year 2022 tropical storm data (shown below) establishing that compared to its 30 year North Atlantic data records covering the Climatological period 1991-2020 the year 2022 hurricane season was below average in Named Storms, Named Storm Days, Hurricane Days, Major Hurricanes, Major Hurricane Days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).

The NOAA prediction was far off base regarding major hurricanes with only 2 occurring during the season versus the 3-6 predicted range and only a total of 14 storms which was at the very lowest end of their predicted 14-21 range.

The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season ended with only 78% of the average ACE recorded compared to its 30-year climatology average ACE during the 1991-2020 period. The 2022 ACE level is 60% lower than occurred during the six-year period inclusive of 2016 through 2021 despite climate alarmism hyped propaganda the the world is experiencing a “climate emergency.”

The Colorado State University graph below shows the year 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season below average ACE outcome compared to 30-year climate average period between 1991-2020.

Additional scientific assessments of ACE data shown below clearly establish that there are no recent climate change driven increases in tropical storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes with these outcomes demonstrating natural climate behavior is driving these outcome patterns.

 

Additional scientific assessments of ACE data shown below clearly establish that there are no recent climate change driven increases in tropical storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes with these outcomes demonstrating natural climate behavior is driving these outcome patterns.

I sure don't see any evidence for an increase in hurricanes. Do you?

I suspect that hurricane forecasters are strongly biased in favor of over-predicting hurricanes. Bad things happen when you inadequately prepare for hurricanes, and very little bad happens when you prepare for hurricanes that don't come. Disappoint me again, please!

Also at WUWT, H. Sterling Burnett Wrong, The Conversation, Evidence Shows People Are NOT Under Greater Threat from Hurricanes. Well, certainly more people and property are at risk, but that's because there are more people and property, not because there are more hurricanes. 

Biden Snubs DeSantis as Ian Approaches Florida

A petty old man, to the detriment of the country. At Da Wire, Biden Finally Speaks To DeSantis Following Backlash Over Not Reaching Out Ahead Of Hurricane "Biden had managed to find time to speak with several Florida mayors ahead of Hurricane Ian’s anticipated landfall but he had not bothered to call DeSantis (R), one of his top political opponents." DeSantis Fires Back At Biden After No Contact Before Hurricane Hits: ‘We Don’t Have Time For Pettiness’ DeSantis War Room@DeSantisWarRoom ""I’m happy to brief the President if he’s interested in hearing what we’re doing in Florida... You've got people’s lives at stake...no time for pettiness, we've gotta work together to make sure we’re doing the best job for them. So my phone line is open." Nick Arama at Red State, DeSantis Delivers the Perfect Response to Biden's Pettiness Over Hurricane Call. A low bar. to be sure. Stephen Kruiser at PJ Media thinks DeSantis Looks More Presidential Than Biden in Lead-Up to Hurricane  Meanwhile, the liberal media eagerly await devastation in Florida to blame on DeSantis, via the Wombat's In The Mailbox: 09.27.22, Shark Tank: POLITICO Accused Of Politicizing Hurricane Ian. Fox, Amy Klobuchar suggests voting Democrat will help stop hurricanes: 'That's why we've got to win this', "Klobuchar says 'we just did something about climate change' before invoking Hurricane Ian." Sister Toldja at Red State identifies a A Disturbing Pattern With Joe Biden's Handlers. Guy Benson at Town Hall, The Left Is Going Nuts Over Pete Buttigieg's Latest Criticism of Ron DeSantis. Is he back at work, or is he still chest-feeding?

At CNS News Harvard Caps Harris Poll: 56% of Voters ‘Have Doubts’ About Biden’s Mental ‘Fitness’ for Office. WaPoo shit's itself and admits The Biden-Trump rematch, in many ways, has already begun. At WaEx, Paul Bedard reports a Liberal Media Scream: Stephanopoulos slips, says Trump would beat Biden. At Compact, He’s Still the One (Trump). I&I, Trump Suffers Zero Electoral Fallout From FBI’s Mar-A-Lago Raid: I&I/TIPP Poll. Insty, That fingernail-on-a-blackboard scratching screech you hear is the gnashing of teeth in the Biden White House, Department of Justice, FBI Building and Mainstream Media newsrooms across the country. At NYPo, Registered Democrats are sick of the radical left—and some are switching sides.

From the Wombat's In The Mailbox: 09.27.22, EBL: Conservative Tiffany Smiley can win a Senate seat in Washington State!, Louder With Crowder: Another surprising 2022 midterm poll shows Democrats might have problems in one of the bluest of blue regions, More proof Dems are getting mollywhopped in November, Am Power: Fighting the Culture War Through Christ, Republicans Intensify Attacks on Crime as Democrats Push Back,  and Am Think, There’s a Reason Conservatives are Becoming Less Tame, also, If Republicans Want to Win, Commit. Nick Arama again has More Good News in Senate Race That Wasn't Even Supposed to Be on Radar Rick Moran at PJ Media claims It's Happening Again: Bad Polling Is Giving Democrats a False Sense of Confidence Going Into the Election. At WaT, GOP candidates often beat the pollsters, and gives "A history of polling errors."  At Haut Hair, David Strom calls the Dem midterm strategy: Racing for the Bottom(s).

At Da Fed, Shawn Fleetwood reminds us What Are The Odds? Census Mistakes Overwhelmingly Benefit Democrats. I'm not willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

At the Wa Free Bee, John Fetterman Told His Constituents To ‘Eat More Vegetables.’ He Was Flabbergasted When Dr. Oz Told Him the Same. "Eat more vegetables" road signs? You must be joking. Insty, TO BE FAIR, MOST OF WHAT HE SAYS MAKES NO SENSE: John Fetterman Claims He Made Communities Safer, but We Have the Receipts. Paul Bedard at WaEx is amused that Pennsylvania’s Fetterman dogged by ‘history of unpaid taxes’. Taxes are for the little people! But Ann Coulter is more concerned with Fetterman’s Murderous Campaign Aides – How It Really Happened (the PI). 

Jeff Lord at Am Spec details The Importance of Doug Mastriano, "The Pennsylvania GOP gubernatorial nominee is reportedly receiving no support from the Republican Governors Association." Paul Bedard reports Texas Gov. Abbott pulling away from O’Rourke thanks to abortion and border. At the Wa Free Bee, Undercover Cop Hater: New Mexico Congressional Hopeful Uses Fake Name To Trash Cops, Deletes Evidence, "Democrat Gabe Vasquez called to defund police in interview he gave under fake name, investigation shows," points out how Tim Ryan Says Americans Need To Give Up Gas Cars as He Drives Around Ohio in Gas Guzzlers and Republicans Within Striking Distance in Deep-Blue Los Angeles District, Spelling Trouble for House Dems. But are they beyond the margin of fraud? But at Am Great, Ed Ring worries Will Libertarian Candidates Again Deny GOP the U.S. Senate?

From the Wombat's In The Mailbox: 09.27.22, at LI Stacey Matthews reports Far-Left Salon Mag Gives Up On Term “Latinx”, "Proposes Equally Ridiculous Alternative “Latine.”

From Da Signal, Pro-Life Father Arrested by FBI Pleads Not Guilty. "Houck’s attorney said that President Joe Biden’s Justice Department is pushing the charges as a form of “political prosecution,” the publication reported, noting that the case was already thrown out by the state court." Elle Purnell at Da Fed, Regime Media Don’t Want You To Hear About The FBI Raid On A Pro-Life Father.  At Am Con,  Responsible Citizens and Immoral Agency, "The machine is not wrong. Men like Houck are its enemy." From the Wombat's In The Mailbox: 09.27.22, Da Tech Guy is Announcing the Novena to St. Matthew for the FBI Agents involved in the Mark Houck Arrest Day 1 "One of the hardest non-optional commands of Christ to his followers is this one from Luke Chapter 6: “But to you who hear I say, love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who mistreat you." Ace, Congressional Republicans Demand Interview With FBI Agent Who Covered Up For Hunter Biden's Laptop. 

"He'll refuse. Only federal employees are obligated to testify and, what a coincidence, he's not an employee any longer. But he wasn't fired. He didn't lose his pension or anything. He wasn't kept on as an employee in a rubber room so that he could be made to testify. No, he was quietly allowed to slip away from testifying with his pension intact. You can subpoena him, but he can fight it. And he can always invoke the Fifth. Ooops, he got away! Whoops!

Leslie Eastman at LI, Bombshell LA Times Report: FBI Misled Judge Who OK’d Warrant for Beverly Hills Seizure of $86 million, "There is currently a class-action lawsuit by box holders who say the raid violated their rights."

Tristan Justice at Da Fed reports Jan. 6 Committee Decides To Move Final Show Trial Hearing Even Closer To Election Day. Afraid of being drowned out by media coverage of Hurricane Ian? At Town Hall, Julio Rosas thinks This Is the Reason Why the J6 Committee Canceled Wednesday's Hearing.

At CNN, Historic trial for Oath Keepers leader and his top lieutenants over January 6 set to begin. What are the chances of getting an unbiased jury in Washington D.C.?

At Red State Joe Cunningham finds Noted CIA Analyst Evan McMullin Still Believes, Without Evidence, That Trump Is a Russian Asset. Bitterly clinging to his religion. 

Ryan Ledendecker at PJ Media reports even Jerry Nadler Reportedly Said Trump's First Sham Impeachment Trial Was 'Unconstitutional, then went ahead anyway.

Thank Goodness - Climate Crisis Over!

Nancy Pelosi says so! And all it took was a $360 billion. WUWT:  Pelosi calls it! Celebrate! The ‘climate crisis’ is officially over! Pelosi Declares ‘We Saved the Planet’ w/ pork-barrel federal spending bill! — But wait…Not so fast…

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sept 22, 2022: “We saved the planet. We’re saving the planet with record $360 billion to save the planet, generating jobs and cleaner air and cleaner water and jobs and security for our country.”

Climate Depot’s Morano response: Yea! Now can we go back to driving cars, eating meat and using appliances, and controlling our own home thermostats?!

Cheers! Take a moment to let it sink in! With the Inflation Reduction Act going into law, the long battle to fight ‘global warming’ has finally been solved! Let the good times roll! “Roll out the barrel, we’ll have a barrel of fun. Roll out the barrel, we’ve got the blues on the run. Zing boom tararrel, ring out a song of good cheer!”

BUT WAIT…The pork-barrel Inflation Reduction Act will not even impact global CO2 levels, let alone the climate!

See:Analysis: Biden’s 50% emissions reduction target for 2030 (if achieved) would have a ‘nearly unmeasurable’ impact on overall global CO2 emissions&

Statistician Bjorn Lomborg: Biden’s IRA climate bill will ‘do almost nothing for the global temperature…even by end of century’ – ‘Will reduce temps by less than 1 thousandth of a degree F by the end of the century’

Who knew that the last 1 thousandth of a degree F was going to kill us all? And hurricanes. They're gonna fix that too. David Strom at Haut Hair,  Biden's policies will magically diminish hurricanes this year according to KJP

Karine Jean-Pierre: "What may happen in this hurricane season” will be “helped” by Biden’s "historic investment to fight climate change” pic.twitter.com/3sivWm6EfO

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 23, 2022

The Lake Wobegone Hurricane Forecast

 Always above average. WUWT, NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Although that's "above average," it's not a lot above average, and there's still a pretty decent chance that the season will be average or below.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”

The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons. The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.

Kip Hansen catches the NPR spreading doom and gloom: Getting ready for another destructive Atlantic hurricane season?.  WaPoo, NOAA forecasts seventh straight busy Atlantic hurricane season

The siege of active Atlantic hurricane seasons will continue for yet another year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Tuesday. In its annual seasonal outlook, the agency forecast the seventh straight above-normal Atlantic season, with 14 to 21 named storms — compared with 14 in an average year — and three to six major hurricanes, rated Category 3 or higher.

So, how good are the pre-season hurricane predictions? Not too bad, WFLA  Tracking the Tropics: How accurate are hurricane season forecasts?

Moon Woobles, Chesapeake Faces "Climate Wreckage"

 First, from Sauron's Eye, NASA: Moon "wobble" in orbit may lead to record flooding on Earth

The new study from NASA and the University of Hawaii, published recently in the journal Nature Climate Change, warns that upcoming changes in the moon's orbit could lead to record flooding on Earth in the next decade.

Through mapping the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) sea-level rise scenarios, flooding thresholds and astronomical cycles, researchers found flooding in American coastal cities could be several multiples worse in the 2030s, when the next moon "wobble" is expected to begin. They expect the flooding to significantly damage infrastructure and displace communities.

While the study highlights the dire situation facing coastal cities, the lunar wobble is actually a natural occurrence, first reported in 1728. The moon's orbit is responsible for periods of both higher and lower tides about every 18.6 years, and they aren't dangerous in their own right.

"In half of the Moon's 18.6-year cycle, Earth's regular daily tides are suppressed: High tides are lower than normal, and low tides are higher than normal," NASA explains. "In the other half of the cycle, tides are amplified: High tides get higher, and low tides get lower. Global sea-level rise pushes high tides in only one direction – higher. So half of the 18.6-year lunar cycle counteracts the effect of sea-level rise on high tides, and the other half increases the effect."

But this time around, scientists are more concerned. With sea-level rise due to climate change, the next high tide floods are expected to be more intense and more frequent than ever before, exacerbating already grim predictions.

So, we're going from normal to normal? Scary, indeed! Here in the Bay, with about 3 mm of sea level rise annually (between true sea level rise and settlement), that makes the water level about 58 mm, or 2.5 inches higher than the last time this happened. Hardly a catastrophe, although, if your property is low to the water, you might see instances of increased flooding. I look forward to looking for fossils with a slightly higher tidal range, though.

Next,  E&E News  Climate wreckage along Chesapeake fuels courtroom reckoning "Climate Wreckage"? Nothing alarmist about that headline, is there?

Foster, 63, has lived here on the shore of the Chesapeake Bay for nearly four decades. But he hasn’t shaken a sense of foreboding since 2003, when Hurricane Isabel slammed into the East Coast as a tropical storm, flooding his entire neighborhood.

The storm surge destroyed about 30 homes in Shady Side. Foster’s next door neighbor had her house excavated with a bulldozer after water caused the floor to collapse. Foster and his family went without power for a week and without running water for months because of damage to public wells.

“I certainly worry about the next hurricane. It’s not if, but when,” Foster said in a recent interview with E&E News in his front yard, which overlooks the bay. “Certainly the right trajectory would cause us some grief.”

Flag Harbor after Hurricane Isabel

Yep, Hurricane Isabel has a strong storm surge in the bay, particularly in the upper bay, where it "funneled up and concentrated at Annapolis and Baltimore. We had low houses flooded here too. 

Like Foster, state and local officials in Maryland are worried about the cost of protecting their communities against more severe storms and other natural disasters fueled by climate change. And they’re launching courtroom battles to force fossil fuel companies to foot the bill.

A growing body of research shows that climate change is making hurricanes stronger and more destructive. As humans continue to release more planet-warming greenhouse gases, the ocean is heating up. Warmer oceans hold more moisture, providing more energy for tropical storms as they move over land.

Actually, science shows no such thing. No significant change in hurricane and tropical storm number or intensity, although there are periods of higher and lower activity due to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

Hurricanes are just the most dramatic sign of human-caused global warming here on the Chesapeake Bay. Sea levels are also creeping upward by approximately 1 inch every five years — nearly twice the global average rate.

with the difference being caused by settling and water usage. 

For state and local governments in Maryland, addressing these climate impacts will cost millions of dollars. Anne Arundel County, which includes Shady Side and the state capital of Annapolis, expects to spend at least $237 million to elevate public roads and replace drainage pipes threatened by sea-level rise, flooding and storm surge.

To help fund these efforts, local officials are pursuing legal action against a major source of planet-warming emissions: Big Oil.

Anne Arundel County Executive Steuart Pittman, a Democrat, sued more than two dozen oil and gas companies earlier this year over their contribution to — and alleged deception about — the dangers of rising global temperatures (Greenwire, April 27).

The lawsuit asserts that Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell PLC and other oil supermajors misled the public for decades about the environmental risks of burning fossil fuels. It asks the companies to help fund climate adaptation projects to shield the county’s 530 miles of shoreline from rising seas and stronger storms.

Annapolis Mayor Gavin Buckley, another Democrat, launched a similar legal challenge in February. His complaint notes that the city expects to spend at least $56 million on protecting the historic downtown area from flooding, as well as at least $45 million on constructing 4 miles of sea wall by 2040.

These are bullshit, money grasping lawsuits, designed mainly to shake down fossil fuel companies too afraid to fight the bad science in court, and face the wrath of public opinion. 

With nearly a 100 year record, sea level rise at Annapolis is roughly 3.7 mm per year, with no sign of acceleration due to increasing fossil fuel use.

It Happens Every Year

WUWT, NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season

May 20, 2021 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. However, experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020.

For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 through November 30.

“Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA are poised to deliver life-saving early warnings and forecasts to communities, which will also help minimize the economic impacts of storms.”

I wouldn't call that the strongest warning possible. The nice thing is, regardless of what happens, they'll always be right. Have a big storm year? "Yeah, we told you so!". Have a weak year? "Well, we told you we had a 20% chance of a dud!"  And if it doesn't look like it's working out, they'll revise it at mid season

At least it doesn't look like they chose this moment to blame global warming for more and more intense hurricanes. Because that myth is thoroughly busted: CO2 Cyclone Doomsday Flat Out Refuted: 170 Years “Absolutely No Trend” In Hurricane Intensity/Frequency

Nevertheless, every time hurricanes and tropical storms are mentioned in the media, they always assert, without providing any evidence, that hurricanes and tropical storms are increasing in frequency and severity due to global warming.

It just ain't so.

9/18/20 Beach Report

A dark and stormy day, with trailing edges of Sally giving us clouds and wind, but no rain. Temperatures are actually almost cool in shorts and a short sleeve shirt. Fall is coming!

Our visitor from Florida is still hanging around the beach.

Not a single shark's tooth was found.