Sunday, May 23, 2021

It Happens Every Year

WUWT, NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season
May 20, 2021 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. However, experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020.

For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 through November 30.

“Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA are poised to deliver life-saving early warnings and forecasts to communities, which will also help minimize the economic impacts of storms.”

I wouldn't call that the strongest warning possible. The nice thing is, regardless of what happens, they'll always be right. Have a big storm year? "Yeah, we told you so!". Have a weak year? "Well, we told you we had a 20% chance of a dud!"  And if it doesn't look like it's working out, they'll revise it at mid season

At least it doesn't look like they chose this moment to blame global warming for more and more intense hurricanes. Because that myth is thoroughly busted: CO2 Cyclone Doomsday Flat Out Refuted: 170 Years “Absolutely No Trend” In Hurricane Intensity/Frequency

Nevertheless, every time hurricanes and tropical storms are mentioned in the media, they always assert, without providing any evidence, that hurricanes and tropical storms are increasing in frequency and severity due to global warming.

It just ain't so.

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