Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Now Imagine All the Cars in South Florida Were Electric

Why do I think owning an electric car is a risk?

The distance between Miami and Valdosta, just over the border in Georgia, is 439 miles.

According to Wikipedia, the maximum range of a Tesla Model S car is just over 300 miles, though many electric cars have a much lower range, 100 – 150 miles being common.

This 300 miles maximum represents the range of a top electric car in perfect driving conditions. I suspect in the stop / start traffic jam conditions of the Florida Hurricane Irma evacuation, the range of even the best electric cars would be substantially reduced.

I don’t know how many car drivers heeded the call to evacuate. But at the height of the Hurricane Irma crisis, according to CNBC twelve million Florida residents were ordered to leave.

A gasoline car typically has 300 – 400 miles range. Unlike an electric car, a gasoline car can be fully refuelled in minutes. Refuelling lots of gasoline cars does not place a massive strain on the electric grid. If fuel stations are too busy, a well prepared gasoline car driver can carry their own refill in the trunk – a few cans of gasoline would almost double that 400 mile range, for the price of a quick 5 minute stop by the side of the road.

Imagine if the government banned gasoline cars, so all privately owned cars were electric. Imagine if every one of those evacuees had an electric car. Imagine the chaos if millions of electric cars pulled up at the same roadside charging stations at the same time, each expecting their half hour “fast” recharge, each driver utterly desperate to bring their families to safety before the hurricane struck.
So, let's say most of South Florida owns non-Tesla electric cars (contrary to popular belief not all Florons are millionaires) and time comes to evacuate. Assuming most of them have the presence of mind to have their electric cars fully charged, all 10 million of them need to recharge their cars somewhere around Orlando, and maybe somewhere else before reaching safety, taking multiple hours to recharge. Assuming the grid can handle the sudden demand, and assuming the grid stays up.

Note that all the demand for electricity from a battery powered car must be supplied when charging it since we do not currently have any good means of storing large amounts of electrical power. If everyone has electric cars and tries to charge them all at the same time (say the end of the work day), and the wind ain't blowing, and the sun ain't shining, where do you suppose that electricity comes from? Gasoline is literally stored energy, easily transportable in tankers.

The article also has an interesting fact about the Tesla:
The electric-car giant gave customers a lifeline by remotely boosting their vehicles’ battery capacity. But this act of kindness also highlighted that it had been selling identical cars at different prices.

drivers who fled Hurricane Irma last weekend received an unexpected lesson in modern consumer economics along the way. As they sat on choked highways, some of the electric-car giant’s more keenly priced models suddenly gained an extra 30 or so miles in range thanks to a silent free upgrade.

The move, confirmed by Tesla, followed the request of one Florida driver for a limit on his car’s battery to be lifted. Tesla’s cheaper models, introduced last year, have the same 75KwH battery as its more costly cars, but software limits it to 80% of range.
Owners can otherwise buy an upgrade for several thousands of dollars. And because Teslas software updates are online, the company can make the changes with the flick of a virtual switch.
So for a lower (but still high) price, you get the same car, but one with software that cripples it's mileage? Nice!

I can see a market for hacking Teslas.

1 comment:

  1. ...And further consider the disorderly flow of electric vehicles BACK HOME after Hurricane Irma with those same electric cars. No thanks! Oh, never mind...that would never happen because they were all abandoned along the roadside during the evacuation when they couldn't be charged.