Sunday, May 29, 2016

Hurricane, Tropical Storm Activity Expect to Increase

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season likely will be "near normal" with up to four major storms, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Friday.

The season starts Wednesday and runs through Nov. 30.

The center predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 16 named storms of winds 39 mph or higher. Four to eight could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. That includes one to four major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher.

The center says a near-normal season is most likely, with a 45 percent chance. There is also a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season. The forcasts include a storm that already formed over the far eastern Atlantic in January: Alex. Bonnie, which was upgraded to a tropical storm Saturday from a tropical depression, is the season's second named storm.

It is forecast to make landfall in South Carolina on Saturday.

"This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it's difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "However, a near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we've seen in the last three years, which were below normal."
Others, however, have a different take: Former NOAA Meteorologist Warns:

2016 And 2017 Hurricane Seasons To Be “Most Dangerous And Costly In Over 10 Years”

Former NOAA meteorologist David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) says the 2016 and 2017 Atlantic hurricane seasons will be the strongest in over 4 years, and have the most United States hurricane landfalls since 11 were experienced during the destructive seasons of 2004 and 2005.

GWO has issued the most accurate predictions of any organization over the past 7 years, and says that unlike the past three hurricane seasons, which were dominated by hostile atmospheric conditions that subdued hurricane activity, the next few years will be in a “Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle” that will provide very favorable conditions for development of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Mr. Dilley predicts the upcoming 2016 and 2017 seasons will be much stronger than the past three seasons, and it will likely be the most dangerous and costly period in over 10 years. The 2016 season will have 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Three of the GWO United States prediction zones are at high risk for hurricane conditions in 2016. One of the zones has a high risk for a major impact hurricane. The 2017 season will be more dangerous and costly than 2016, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and several of the GWO prediction zones will be at high risk for major impact hurricanes. Over the two year period, GWO expects 5 to 8 United States Hurricane Hot Spots.
I guess we'll see who gets it right.

When I tried to update previous reports of the relative accuracy of such predictions, I found no new data, leaving me to believe NOAA is not especially proud of their outcomes in past years.

1 comment:

  1. “Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle” ?

    An El Niño thing?