Blue Cities Praying for Red Death

Stacy McCain, Blue-State Media Continue Wishcasting Coronavirus Epidemic in Red States

Since mid-March, at least, we have seen endless reiterations of this narrative: “Oh, sure, the virus is devastating Democratic-controlled urban areas now,” the media keep saying, “but just you wait — eventually those Trump voters out in the sticks will pay the price!”

Two assumptions are baked into this narrative:

1. Trump is to blame for the COVID-19 catastrophe. Despite the fact that the U.S. coronavirus per-capita death rate is far below the rate in many European countries — Belgium, Spain, France, etc. — liberals want Americans to believe that it’s actually worse here, and that this is Trump’s fault.
2. Contagious diseases are a sort of political karma. If you vote Republican, you deserve to die, according to the media elite.

Of course, these assumptions are never expressed overtly, but what else can explain this gleeful desire to see rural America devastated?

Rural Counties Seeing Faster Growth in COVID-19 Cases, Deaths

The coronavirus was slower to make an impact in much of rural America, but cases and deaths have risen significantly in recent weeks, a new analysis shows.
The toll of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, has shocked urban areas like New Orleans and New York City. But concerns abound that the virus could devastate rural communities, where populations tend to skew older and sicker and where there are fewer intensive care beds. Since 2010, more than 120 rural hospitals have shuttered altogether.
The new analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation indicates that while rural communities have fewer COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people than urban areas, rates of both coronavirus cases and deaths have surged at a faster pace in more rural counties in the last two weeks. The average number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people rose 125% in non-metro counties — or those that are largely rural, according to the analysis — and by 68% in metro counties between April 13 and 27, according to the analysis. Deaths rose 169% in more rural areas and 113% in the more urban counties, reaching respective rates of 4.4 and 17 per 100,000.

There is some statistical voodoo involved in this claim, which I’ll address in a minute, but notice how the headline and lead portray this study: “Finally, the Red State COVID-19 Apocalypse has arrived!”

One can imagine the MSNBC producers grinning at this news that — at last! — those Fox News-watching rubes in the hinterlands are finally getting the karmic retribution they deserve. Except . . .

No, it’s not really happening. This is statistical voodoo, based upon a simple fact: When you are starting from near zero, a fast rate of increase is not difficult to achieve, but this does not mean that the tortoise, who has just taken his first step, will soon overtake the hare. What is embedded in this “watch out, rural America” theme is a message in support of more or less permanent quarantine lockdown orders.

It has not escaped the notice of our media class that the pressure to end these orders — to “re-open America” — has been strongest in areas where infection rates and death rates of COVID-19 have been low. Therefore, they must scavenge around for some kind of “evidence” to suggest that ending the lockdowns will produce catastrophic rural outbreaks. . .

It has long been my contention that the rural/urban difference is the fundamental split in American politics. Rural areas provide the food, energy, and raw materials for the whole country, urban areas provide what? Crooked accounting? I jest, but only a bit.

It's not that people in rural areas are immune to WuFlu, but the life style in rural areas involves much less opportunity for human to human transmission outside the family. Not none (you still have to buy groceries and gas) but much less. Consquently, a disease with an R-naught of 3 in New York City might be lucky to achieve 1.0, the minimum to maintain continued existence in the county.

Of course, Red counties want out from under extreme, and often irrational (see Maryland's Gov. Hogan's ban on recreational fishing) on their activities, when all they see is a slowly progressing disease, somewhat more serious, perhaps, than the annual flu which they rarely bother to get vaccinated for. Sure, it may kill a few elders, but so does the flu.

Back when the "social distancing" was sold to the public, the idea was to "flatten the curve", reduce the rate at which WuFlu raced through the population, and protect the health care system from being overwhelmed, not to prevent a majority of people from getting the disease. If so, that mission has been accomplished, and we seem to be moving to a plan of sheltering in place, to the extent we can, until Dr. Fauci's magic vaccine is developed for mass application (conveniently after the election). In the meantime, we're killing our economy, and piling on  public debt for the foreseeable future.

Our people need to get back to work, with reasonable precautions.

Meanwhile, here in Maryland, we seem to track about the same, an approximately linear increase in confirmed cases of 1K per day, despite increased testings, and deaths appear to have peaked at about 50 per day, in a population of 6 million. Calvert County also has a linear increase in cases to about 160, about 10 per day currently, and 9 deaths, out of a population of 92,000. At ten per day that's 9,000 days, or around 25 years for everyone in the county to contract it. The curve is flat, dammit! My own zip code has zip cases total.

Let my people go!

Liz Vaughn at Red State, Strassel: Here’s Why the Democrats Keep Moving the Shutdown Goal Posts

Politico reports that, according to comments House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made during a two hour conference call with her caucus this week, her conditions for ending the shutdown have changed. She said that “Trump was putting Americans in grave danger if he rushes to reopen the economy at the end of this month.” The Politico story said, “Until a robust testing and contact tracing system is in place, [Pelosi believes] it would be impossible for the president to guarantee Americans a safe reentry into their normal life.”

Knowing that the longer the lockdown remains in effect, the deeper and more prolonged the recession will be, Democrats would like to see it continue for as long as possible. They are acutely aware that a slow economy will hurt the President’s chances of reelection.

Strassel writes:

By these standards, no lockdown may end until the Trump administration can “guarantee” a “safe” world in which people return to “normal.” The feds must stand up a testing system capable of hunting down and snuffing out each new infection. There can be no more outbreaks, and reopening cannot “significantly add” to existing counts (and the press reserves the authority to define “significantly.”) The unsaid corollary is that Mr. Trump will be held politically responsible for reopening in any way that fails to meet these baselines—on the hook for each subsequent death.

Politico reports that House Democrats are working on their “own plan to reopen the nation” which will “require adequate testing and contact tracing to prevent a second outbreak.” They will ask “each state to submit a plan.

The Washington Post reports that “Trump has been so insistent on the reopening that some officials worry only a narrow window exists to provide information to change his mind or to ensure that the effort to reopen does not significantly add to the country’s rising number of infections and deaths.”

“The Democrats have moved the goal posts,” writes Strassel. They are setting up impossible conditions so they can blame President Trump for each COVID-19 death that comes after the shutdown ends. Even with mass testing and contact tracing, deaths will continue to occur. Trump is not a magician. And the Democrats know this. “Yet Mrs. Pelosi sees in this moment a political opportunity to pin the blame for the natural course of a disease on the White House,” notes Strassel.

As Vanity Fair whined Of Course Trump Called Armed, Right-Wing Protesters “Very Good People”