This is a Story Me Grandfather Told...

Crimea is in the news, as the Russians have invaded "entered uncontested"  by the government of Ukraine, the former Soviet State that Vladimir Putin would dearly like to drag back into the Russian bear's grip.

To Stacy McCain, a Virginian, and southerner by heart, I gather, the new Crimean conflict (so far bloodless, at least on the part of the Russians), brings forth thoughts of the Civil War:

What caused this? What happens next? Is there anything that the U.S. could have done to prevent it? Such are the questions being asked today, but my mind — steeped in history — turns back to the Crimean War of 1853-56. It was during this conflict that the French army used rifles firing the minié ball which, when employed on the battlefields of the American Civil War, did so much to lengthen the casualty rolls and, ultimately, prolong the conflict. Rifled musketry increased the advantage to defenders, often allowing troops holding earthwork trenches to inflict casualties at a ratio of 3-to-1, 4-to-1 or even more. At Fredericksburg, Virginia, in December 1863, Burnside sent seven Union divisions to assault Longstreet’s line on Marye’s Height, resulting in more than 6,000 Union casualties compared to only 1,200 for the Confederate defenders. In Grant’s main assault on Lee’s position at Cold Harbor, Virginia, on June 3, 1864, the Union losses were as high as 7,000, while the Confederates suffered just 1,500 casualties.

Interesting, I didn't know the connection of the Crimean War to the minié ball.  But to me the Crimean war will always be associated with this song, the song of a young Irish Invincible, tired of potato farming, who joins the British Army:



This pretty damn close to the version my father sang to us when I was little, unlike the Dubliners version which may well be more authentic.

So what's going to happen in the Ukraine?

There isn’t going to be a war over Ukraine. There isn’t even going to be a crisis over Ukraine. We will perform our ritual war-dance and excoriate the Evil Emperor, and the result would be the same if we had sung “100 Bottles of Beer on the Wall” on a road trip to Kalamazoo. Worry about something really scary, like Iran.

Ukraine isn’t a country: it’s a Frankenstein monster composed of pieces of dead empires, stitched together by Stalin. It has never had a government in the Western sense of the term after the collapse of the Soviet Union gave it independence, just the equivalent of the family offices for one predatory oligarch after another–including the “Gas Princess,” Yulia Tymoshenko. It has a per capital income of $3,300 per year, about the same as Egypt and Syria, and less than a tenth of the European average. The whole market capitalization of its stock exchange is worth less than the Disney Company. It’s a basket case that claims to need $35 billion to survive the next two years. Money talks and bullshit walks. Who wants to ask the American taxpayer for $35 billion for Ukraine, one of the most corrupt economies on earth? How about $5 billion? Secretary of State Kerry is talking about $1 billion in loan guarantees, and the Europeans are talking a similar amount. That’s not diplomacy. It’s a clown show.
. . .
As for the Crimea: Did anyone seriously think that Vladimir Putin would let the main port of Russia’s Black Sea fleet fall into unfriendly hands? Russia will take the Crimea, and the strategic consequences will be nil. We couldn’t have a strategic confrontation if we wanted it. How would we get troops or ships into the Black Sea area in the first place in order to have a confrontation? Perhaps the Belgiums will send in their army instead. I suppose we need to denounce the Russians for violating Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

That sounds about right.