The data from SWPC is in, and it is lethargic at best. Sunspot numbers took a hit, down to about 42, a delta of ~50 lower compared to the red prediction line.
but NASA says ‘twin peaks’ may happen
Pesnell notes yet another complication: “The last two solar maxima, around 1989 and 2001, had not one but two peaks.” Solar activity went up, dipped, then resumed, performing a mini-cycle that lasted about two years.
The same thing could be happening now. Sunspot counts jumped in 2011, dipped in 2012, and Pesnell expects them to rebound again in 2013: “I am comfortable in saying that another peak will happen in 2013 and possibly last into 2014,” he predicts.
This isn't really so much about whether the sun is getting weaker or not, though the sun does dim by a trivial amount during the cycles of low sunspot activity. The real concern is that times of low sunspot activity have historically been a correlated to periods of cool climate for unknown reasons, although evidence is beginning to point to a solar magnetic field ->cosmic ray-> cloud initiation linkage. Such periods as the
Maunder and
Dalton Sunspot minimas had cooler than average climate and poor agriculture. Are we headed into such a period now? We just don't know. Clearly, our ability to predict solar activity is still less than perfect.
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