2020 Just Keeps Getting Better

Bay Journal, Chesapeake region urged to prepare for busy hurricane season

Hurricane forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center say there’s a high likelihood of getting 13 to 19 named Atlantic storms, with winds reaching at least 39 miles per hour. The Atlantic spawns 12 named storms a year on average, though last year there were 18.

Before the season ends Nov. 30, NOAA experts predict that six to 10 of those named storms could become hurricanes with winds of 74 miles per hour or more. Moreover, three to six of them are considered likely to grow into major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more.

Last year, by comparison, saw six Atlantic hurricanes, half of them major.

There’s a confluence of conditions making hurricanes more likely this year, NOAA forecasters say. For starters, it seems there’ll be no El Nino, that unusual warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean waters that tends to suppress Atlantic storm activity. Add to that warm surface waters in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker trade winds and an enhanced west Africa monsoon.

Aftermath of Isabel at Flag Harbor

The Chesapeake Bay doesn’t get many direct hits from hurricanes. The worst one in the past two decades was Isabel in 2003, which in its rampage up the East Coast caused $5 billion in damage and 51 fatalities, 17 directly linked to the flooding and winds.

But even when hurricanes make landfall elsewhere or turn out to sea farther south, the Bay region can get hammered with torrential rains, flash flooding and tornadoes. In 2018, a trio of weakened but still powerful storms — Alberto, Michael and Florence — caused 13 storm-related deaths in Virginia.

To be fair, however, hurricane forecasts aren't terrible specific, consisting largely of weak, average or above average, and even then, not horribly accurate, only about 70%.

But nothing stops a riot in it's tracks as well as a hurricane.