Monday, May 9, 2011

Autism Epidemic, No, More Diagnosis, Yes

Autism epidemic? More likely we're just better at diagnosis
...the British team started with a few simple hypotheses. If the prevalence of ASDs (autism spectrum disorders) has been increasing, then the youngest adults would have rates similar to the ones seen in the oldest children, with the rates dropping with age. They also hypothesized that any adults they did find would share features with the other ASD individuals, including poor social integration; like the current generation, they'd be more likely to be male.

They then set about an enormous undertaking: diagnosing a representative population of UK adults. As a first pass, they selected a population based on postal codes and employment statistics. With over 14,000 households identified, interviewers fanned out, ultimately completing over 7,000 interviews that provided a first level of screening for ASD diagnoses. From that pool, 850 individuals were chosen for a second, more in-depth interview; 630 people completed that, and the authors adjusted their data to take a failure to respond into account, leaving them with a population that was largely representative of the English population over 16 years of age. ...

...Based on the scores obtained using the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (a standard diagnostic test), the authors identified 19 adults who qualify as autistic. That's a rate of 9.8 per 1,000, or roughly the same rate as its appearance in children.
Another nail in the coffin of  "vaccines cause autism hypothesis".  Autism isn't a new epidemic caused by some new modern factor.  Kids who used to be just "odd" or "antisocial" are now diagnosed ASD.  In all likelihood, it's a form of mental birth defect.  There may yet be some underlying cause in some cases like fetal nutrition, trauma, or hormones, but what ever it is, it is not a new phenomenon.  No one to blame, no one to sue.

No comments:

Post a Comment