WuFlu In the News

What with the dearth of useful Russiagate, this would be good morning to get rid of some accumulated links about the "Novel" Wuhan Coronavirus.

Regarding the origin of the virus, NIH director: ‘No way of knowing’ if coronavirus escaped from Wuhan lab (Politico). There may be no way to tell of the virus escaped from the lab using the virus's genetics, but there may a way to find out if it was being cultured in the lab by China. And China is an asshole. Which means we'll have to use espionage to find out for sure.

From the UPI, New evidence suggests Coronavirus was already spreading in U.S. in January. In California, where it was probably directly imported from China. Curiously, this outbreak didn't amount to much, compared to the outbreak in the New York area which was probably imported from Europe.

WaPoo, CDC chief defends failure to spot early coronavirus spread in U.S. "Robert R. Redfield says diagnostic testing would have made little difference, describing it like ‘looking for a needle in a haystack’" The CDC hasn't covered itself in glory in this crisis. But if you want to find out about Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Health, CDC is the way to go.  It may be an organization which has lost its way.

Paul Bedard at WaEx, DHS: Bigger virus ‘catastrophe’ avoided by stopping illegal immigration. Probably an overstatement. In an exponential rising curve, importing a few more cases only gets you "there" a few days sooner. Still, there's no point in importing more if you can help it.

Timothy Carney at WaEx, For some reason, the WHO still says you probably shouldn’t wear a mask and at NYPo, Healthy people should wear masks only if caring for coronavirus patients, WHO says  Well, they're certainly helpful at some places and some times, but remember, wearing a mask is primarily to protect the population from you, not vice versa. WHO has been a hot bed of misinformation throughout this crisis. I would take their recommendations into advisement, but I will always wonder what China gets out of it.

According to Sauron's Eye, CDC warns antibody testing still too inaccurate to use for coronavirus-related policy decisions

"For example, in a population where the prevalence is 5%, a test with 90% sensitivity and 95% specificity will yield a positive predictive value of 49%," the CDC said on its website. "In other words, less than half of those testing positive will truly have antibodies. Alternatively, the same test in a population with an antibody prevalence exceeding 52% will yield a positive predictive greater than 95%, meaning that less than one in 20 people testing positive will have a false positive test result."

Simple math, assuming the tests aren't perfect, and they never are. And with the exception of maybe the New York area, we are well below 5% prevelence. I wonder what the real sensitivity and specificity are. STAT, When hard data are ‘heartbreaking’: Testing blitz in San Francisco shows Covid-19 struck mostly low-wage workers. Sadly, the people who can't afford to social distance.

The Spectator Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid. One of two free views for the month. Choose carefully. At WUWT, Nic Lewis considers When does government intervention make sense for COVID-19?. His models suggest "lockdown" works best when applied for a short time in the later stages of the epidemic. Could we have lucked into the optimal solution? But remember, all models are wrong but only some models are useful.

From Sundance at CTH, COVID Madness – Montgomery County, Maryland, Provides Nonsensical Rules for Opening…



And Monkey County is one of the most liberal counties in one of the most liberal states in America.

Politico worries What If Trump’s Record on the Pandemic Is Better Than We Think? They're certainly working over time to convey the opposite. Insty, HAVE WE WON? Coronavirus task force chief Mike Pence: You did it, America.

On the treatment front, MedRxIv reports on Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin plus zinc vs hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin alone: outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients

We performed a retrospective observational study to compare hospital outcomes among patients who received hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin plus zinc versus hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin alone. Methods: Data was collected from electronic medical records for all patients being treated with admission dates ranging from March 2, 2020 through April 5, 2020. Initial clinical characteristics on presentation, medications given during the hospitalization, and hospital outcomes were recorded. Patients in the study were excluded if they were treated with other investigational medications. Results: The addition of zinc sulfate did not impact the length of hospitalization, duration of ventilation, or ICU duration. In univariate analyses, zinc sulfate increased the frequency of patients being discharged home, and decreased the need for ventilation, admission to the ICU, and mortality or transfer to hospice for patients who were never admitted to the ICU. After adjusting for the time at which zinc sulfate was added to our protocol, an increased frequency of being discharged home (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.12-2.09) reduction in mortality or transfer to hospice remained significant (OR 0.449, 95% CI 0.271-0.744). Conclusion: This study provides the first in vivo evidence that zinc sulfate in combination with hydroxychloroquine may play a role in therapeutic management for COVID-19.

Could Vitamin C help? Leo Goldstein at WUWT, Vitamin C in COVID-19 Prevention. His explanation is rational, if true. It also suggests that Linus Pauling may have been less of a crank in his old age than I had previously thought. Vitamin C is cheap, and relatively harmless. Eat an orange or two.

NYPo, Northwell Health probing ventilator use amid high coronavirus death rate. It's becoming increasingly clear the ventilators are not a step to be taken lightly even in serious cases of WuFlu, and that ventilator use in this specific disease may have killed more people than they saved. But, whatever, we have plenty of them now.