Thursday, April 11, 2013

POPSCI Tries To Scare You: OMG, We're All Gonna Drown

PopSci (the magazine we used to call Popular Science, when it contained real science) has an article in it about showing photoshops of how sea level rise will affect some well known places in the future:
Climate change is going to ruin our vacations. Not only will it likely make our flights more uncomfortable, but our favorite destinations could be underwater--in a few hundred years anyway. Inspired by The New York Times's interactive project on sea level rise, Nickolay Lamm, a 24-year-old researcher and artist based in Pittsburgh, created this series of photo illustrations of the watery tourist traps of the future.

Currently, global sea levels are rising even faster than we've projected, according to recent studies. The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change estimates that seas will rise an average of 6.6 feet by 2100. Over the coming centuries, as temperatures rise and ice sheets melt, our oceans could rise as much as 20 or 30 feet.
 

Here's this vision for the Statue of Liberty, and Manhattan Island.  The experiment has been going on on Manhattan Island ever since we stole bought it from the Indians Native Americans.  Here's the history of measured sea level at Battery Park, at the end of Manhattan:

Hmm, less than 3 mm a year since the late 19th century, with no sign of acceleration.  Manhattan Island was settled by the Dutch in about 1625.  So we would have expected the sea to rise 3 X 400 (rounding up) mm or 1200 mm, or a little over three feet.  So, a shallow island like that was probably a lot bigger back then, right?  Well, no...


Actually, the island has gotten larger, as man has built it up.

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