Global Warming or Not, US Cooled Over Last Decade

NCDC data shows that the contiguous USA has not warmed in the past decade, summers are cooler, winters are getting colder

There has been a lot of noise in the past week or so about the results of the BEST study, which at best, confirmed the long well known rise in temperatures from the late 19th century through most of the 20th, which has not been a point contended by anyone serious.  One point that keeps coming up, a major bone of contention, is that there has been no statistically significant warming trend since about 1998.  This is both less and more revealing than it seems.  Most of us realize intuitively that a short trend in wildly varying data is unlikely to be "real".  Statistical significance is a means scientists us to test whether an effect is likely to be due to random noise, or due to an underlying relationship.

Since the high temperature, El Nino year of 1998, temperatures have fluctuated, staying high relative to the 20th century, but not showing a particular increasing trend. This has prompted Global Warming proponents to propose mechanisms to account for the lack of warming (Chinese smog is the leading contender), and complain that 10 (or 12 or whatever) years is insufficient to detect an increase.

Today's post over at Watts UP with That shows that over the last 10 years, temperatures in the contiguous United States have actually decreased.  If you look at the data for each region, it's pretty remarkable.

When you talk to people about global warming, almost everyone will report that it seems warmer now than it has in the past.  I truly wonder how much of that is people conforming their memories to media reports of global warming.

Try this simple thought experiment.  Imagine two years like, say last year, with the exception that at every point in time, Year 2 is either 1 degree F higher (or lower, if you like).  Without an instrumental record of the temperatures, would you be able to distinguish between them?  I doubt it.