Thursday, May 5, 2022

From The Cheap Seats: How Does the Russia Ukraine War End?

 Col. Ski considers the end: Conflict Termination and a Better Peace

As the Russo-Ukrainian War continues, I have been asked by many people, both within the military and outside the military, “How does this all end?” The easy answer is that I am not sure, and not only am I not sure, I think that anyone who is sure is a fool at best, a charlatan at worst.
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In this lies two major issues associated with conflict termination and the following peace. One, I don’t think Russia wants to escalate this war unless they are completely frustrated in their advance in the Donbas (or the political leadership in the West loses their minds and sends in, say, a British Armored Brigade, or an American Armored Brigade with accompanying fighter and bomber wings). On the Ukrainian side, they will not accept the loss of territory and citizenry, so ending the conflict is quite a ways off yet. Even if the Russians are successful and seize the entirety of the Donbas region, it does not mean the Ukrainians are going to accept this as the end of the conflict.

Secondly, thinking about a peace deal at this point is even more difficult and complex. Both sides have to feel like they have gained something and lost something (I like to call this phenomenon “the new car sale feeling” where both the dealer and buyer should not feel great about the deal), and I do not see a way this manifests itself at the moment. There will be a great deal of inquiry into this war afterwards during the peace discussion, seriously hard issues like reparations for damages, war crime investigations, and if there are going to be any peacekeeping/peace enforcement forces allowed within the Ukraine.

To use a cooking metaphor, the turkey was just placed in the oven, and there’s another four hours of cooking before it’s ready. This war is in another stage, but this stage is nowhere close to the end of the conflict. And as Victor Frankl wrote many decades ago, the abnormality of this situation on both sides will result in additional abnormal behavior by both sides, and that will paradoxically decrease the odds of ending the war and establishing a better peace.
I'm kind of hoping for a Deus Ex-Machina ending in the form of a coupe by Russian generals, tired of being sent to the front lines to shot, or a mysterious death on the operating table.

Linked at Wombat-socho's In The Mailbox: 05.05.22.

1 comment:

  1. What the American people and the World need is a coup d'état in this country that would remove the Deep State.

    Russia just lost another warship, so I expect a major escalation is in the works, but not nuclear, at least for now, but that is still on the table.