At WUWT, Larry Hamlin, Despite Prediction 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Fizzles Out Below “Normal”
In late May and again in early August 2022 NOAA predicted that the year 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season (between June to end November calendar period) would be an “above normal” season with 14-21 named storms, between 6-10 hurricanes including 3-6 major hurricanes (Category 3,4 and 5) as shown in NOAA’s diagram below.
Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science/Tropical Meteorology Project has compiled the year 2022 tropical storm data (shown below) establishing that compared to its 30 year North Atlantic data records covering the Climatological period 1991-2020 the year 2022 hurricane season was below average in Named Storms, Named Storm Days, Hurricane Days, Major Hurricanes, Major Hurricane Days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).
The NOAA prediction was far off base regarding major hurricanes with only 2 occurring during the season versus the 3-6 predicted range and only a total of 14 storms which was at the very lowest end of their predicted 14-21 range.
The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season ended with only 78% of the average ACE recorded compared to its 30-year climatology average ACE during the 1991-2020 period. The 2022 ACE level is 60% lower than occurred during the six-year period inclusive of 2016 through 2021 despite climate alarmism hyped propaganda the the world is experiencing a “climate emergency.”
The Colorado State University graph below shows the year 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season below average ACE outcome compared to 30-year climate average period between 1991-2020.
Additional scientific assessments of ACE data shown below clearly establish that there are no recent climate change driven increases in tropical storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes with these outcomes demonstrating natural climate behavior is driving these outcome patterns.
Additional scientific assessments of ACE data shown below clearly establish that there are no recent climate change driven increases in tropical storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes with these outcomes demonstrating natural climate behavior is driving these outcome patterns.
I sure don't see any evidence for an increase in hurricanes. Do you?
I suspect that hurricane forecasters are strongly biased in favor of over-predicting hurricanes. Bad things happen when you inadequately prepare for hurricanes, and very little bad happens when you prepare for hurricanes that don't come. Disappoint me again, please!
Also at WUWT, H. Sterling Burnett Wrong, The Conversation, Evidence Shows People Are NOT Under Greater Threat from Hurricanes. Well, certainly more people and property are at risk, but that's because there are more people and property, not because there are more hurricanes.
When was the last time that they didn't predict an above average year?
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