Bay Model Flawless, Claims MDE

MDE: Bay model is not flawed

...Responding to Pipkin's question about whether or not the MDE and DNR will be involved in the federal relicensing process for the Conowingo, Summers said his agency is responsible for reviewing and issuing the dam's Clean Water Act Water Quality Certification, a prerequisite for relicensing.

As for the bay model Pipkin called “flawed,” Summers said Maryland and other watershed states are working with the EPA to improve it, not because it is “flawed,” but because “we are committed to continually seeking the best possible scientific and technical information to guide our restoration efforts.”

In his letter to Summers, Pipkin said the sediment that flows through the Conowingo after an event like Tropical Storm Lee in 2011 has the potential to wipe out efforts to clean up the bay.

“This is certainly not true, as we observed specifically with Lee,” wrote Summers. “Although Lee was a major storm, the Bay, and in particular, the submerged aquatic vegetation covering the Susquehanna Flats at the point where the river joins the Bay have been recovering and as a result were resilient enough to weather the storm and continue on their path to recovery.”

Lee hit the Bay rather late in the annual cycle of the Bay, in early September, by which time the vegetation in the Bay was at it's height. The subsequent winter largely erased the effects of Lee in the next growth season.

Remember Fritz's Three Laws of Science:

Fritz's First Law of Science:  Half of all the science in the mass media is wrong, and the other half is exaggerated:

Fritz's Second Law of Science:  All models are wrong; the only question is by how much and in which direction.

Fritz's Third Law of Science: It is highly probable that a model is biased in the direction its author believes is correct.


You can be sure that the Bay model gives results that correspond to the policy preferences of the authors, or more specifically, the agencies that pay the authors.