EPA Regs May Shut Down Twice As Much Power as Predicted

IER Identifies Coal Fired Power Plants Likely to Close as Result of EPA Regulations

Currently, EPA is leading the Obama administration’s assault on coal with a number of new regulations. Two of the most important are the “transport rule” and the “toxics rule” (Utility MACT). Combined, these regulations will systematically reduce access to affordable and reliable energy. According to our report:

EPA Regulations Will Close At Least 28 GW of Generating Capacity

EPA modeling and power-plant operator announcements show that EPA regulations will close at least 28 gigawatts (GW) of American generating capacity, the equivalent of closing every power plant in the state of North Carolina or Indiana. Also, 28 GW is 8.9 percent of our total coal generating capacity.
Current Retirements Almost Twice As High As EPA Predicted

EPA’s power plant-level modeling projected that Agency regulations would close 14.5 GW of generating capacity. That number rises to 28 GW when including additional announced retirements related to EPA rules, almost twice the amount EPA projected. Moreover, this number will grow as plant operators continue to release their EPA compliance plans.

So EPA predicts that their new regulations will only prematurely shut down 14.5 billion (with a b) watts of power production, while industry predicts almost twice as much.  Who's right?  Who knows, but my best guess is somewhere in between.  Call it Fritz's Third Law:  If two ideologically opposed organizations estimate the impact of a regulation or policy, neither will be accurate, and the outcome will be somewhere between the two extremes.