Peer Review or Pal Review?

Every now and then somebody finds grant money to test the efficacy of peer review in making sure the scientific literature is fairly judged, and scrubbed reasonably free of egregious errors.  The results are often hysterical, in a dark and disturbing way.  

Today's example comes from psychology (OK, sort of a science), and concerns the review of previously accepted articles, resubmitted to exactly the same journals they were published in, with the identifying information (author and institution) replaced to slightly cover the fact that the manuscripts were not fresh.  So what happened?

Abstract

The present investigation was an attempt to study the peer-review process directly, in the natural setting of actual journal referee evaluations of submitted manuscripts. As test materials we selected 12 already published research articles by investigators from prestigious and highly productive American psychology departments, one article from each of 12 highly regarded and widely read American psychology journals with high rejection rates (80%) and nonblind refereeing practices.

With fictitious names and institutions substituted for the original ones (e.g., Tri-Valley Center for Human Potential), the altered manuscripts were formally resubmitted to the journals that had originally refereed and published them 18 to 32 months earlier. Of the sample of 38 editors and reviewers, only three (8%) detected the resubmissions. This result allowed nine of the 12 articles to continue through the review process to receive an actual evaluation: eight of the nine were rejected. Sixteen of the 18 referees (89%) recommended against publication and the editors concurred. The grounds for rejection were in many cases described as “serious methodological flaws.” A number of possible interpretations of these data are reviewed and evaluated.

I guess I'm not terribly surprised that neither the editors or the reviewers failed to detect the ruse.  Editors probably don't do much but read the abstract, and pass it off to a assistant editor; this may even be a function that secretaries handle in many cases.  There's an excellent chance it would go to a different assistant editor, who would therefore not be immediately acquainted with it (although, you might hope he would at least scan the published contents of his own journal).  Then he would likely send them out to several referees, hoping two or three might accept it to review, again, it would be unluck of the draw to get the same reviewer twice.  And some of them might even think they were re-reviewing the original article!  A catch rate of 8% seems low, but possible, just on that basis.

As for the failure of the already accepted and published articles to be accepted, there are three obvious mechanisms, not mutually exclusive, and neither is particularly appealing.

The first is that most papers contain "serious methodological flaws", but a few draw the lucky straw in the review process, are not detected, and go on to publication.  In a second "independent" review, they simply draw the majority long straw and are found out and rejected. Not a pretty sight, but at least not a product of bias, known or unknown.  IIRC, these sorts of patterns have been observed with tests of proposals submitted to agencies (the same proposal sent to multiple groups of reviewer), with these sorts of results.  In a system where more papers and proposals are rejected than accepted, it's easy to see this as simply a statistical noise issue.

Another is that reviewers are heavily biased in favor of people they already know of in the field, and from institutions they believe respectable (the original submissions).  The reviewer then would give a paper from an unfamiliar author and an unfamiliar institution much more detailed scrutiny, finding the "serious methodological flaws" that previously passed in the less scrutinized original article. 

The other possibility is that reviewers and editors are conscious gatekeepers of the "purity" of their literature, only allowing favored authors and institutions to publish in their journals.  An especially egregious example of this sort of behavior came to light in the "Climategate" scandal, when e-mails between scientist conspiring to keep other papers out of the literature were revealed in their released e-mails.  It wouldn't have to be that conscious or well planned.

What were they thinkin' when they funded this study!

Hit tip to Watts Up With That (again).

Derailed Train Explodes in Baltimore Carrying Toxics

Derailed train carried toxic chemicals

The freight train that derailed Tuesday in Rosedale carried one chemical classified as hazardous by the U.S. Department of Transportation and another that also posed risks for firefighters and others at the scene even though not similarly classified.

There might have been residues aboard of a third chemical that also is highly corrosive and hazardous. State health officials, however, said the incident represented only a low risk to the public.

CSX spokesman Gary Sease said at least one of the dozen rail cars that appeared to be involved in the derailment contained sodium chlorate. The chemical is used in making a variety of products, including herbicides, explosives, dyes, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and papers, according to a Material Safety Data Sheet prepared by the New Jersey Department of Health and Senior Services.

Sodium chlorate does not burn, but poisonous gases can be produced in a fire, the data sheet says. It is also considered a "strong oxidizer," which could enhance combustion of other materials. Contact can irritate eyes and skin, and it can cause headaches, fatigue, dizziness and death at very high concentrations if inhaled. Ingesting the chemical can damage the liver and kidneys.

But mostly, it's just a very potent oxidizer, which if in contact with some organic materials or some acids if heated.  This is probably what caused the explosion seen and heard on the video linked below

Four of the train's cars held terephthalic acid, the CSX spokesman said, and one of them caught fire, according to Baltimore County officials.

Terephthalic acid is used in making plastics and other products. The Department of Transportation does not list it as a hazardous material, Sease said. But it can irritate skin, eyes, nose, throat and lungs and cause coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath if inhaled, according to the data sheet. Though it does not readily ignite, terephthalic acid can burn, producing harmful gas.

So there's your organic acid, waiting to be mixed with the sodium chlorate and heated...

A fact sheet prepared by the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration advises emergency responders dealing with spills to isolate them and protect people downwind from potential exposure.

County officials said the second of the two cars that caught fire contained fluorosilicic acid. Sease, the CSX spokesman, said the train included a "residue car" that might have included traces of the chemical.

Though it does not burn, fluorosilicic acid is highly corrosive and contact with it in liquid or vapor form can cause severe irritation and chemical burns of the eyes, skin, mucous membranes and respiratory tract, according to a safety sheet by KC Industries, a Florida-based chemical manufacturer.

Hexafluorosilicic acid releases hydrogen fluoride when evaporated, so it has similar risks. It is corrosive and may cause fluoride poisoning; inhalation of the vapors may cause lung edema. Like hydrogen fluoride, it attacks glass and stoneware. LD50 value of hexafluorosilicic acid is 70 mg/kg.

Hydrogen fluoride (HF) is a deadly toxin.  And so there were had the fire to make the HF.  Nice mixture; it's kind of a miracle, and a testament to the care of the first responders, that no one was hurt of killed.

A pretty amusing video of taken by passersby of the the explosion.  The commentary is PG (at best)... 

Science Says: Tattoos Make Women Look Easy

This just in from the mother ship...

On the Beach, Men Are More Likely to Approach a Tattooed Woman

There are a lot of reasons to think twice before getting something permanently drawn on your body. One is that people still treat those with tattoos differently than those without. One recent study, for instance, looked at how men treat women with tattoos. What they found was that men are more likely to approach a woman with a tattoo and more likely to expect a date or sex with that woman.

Shocked, I'm shocked, to find hear the men would think that women with tattoos scantily clothed lying on the beach might somehow be easier to uh, "date" than say, a woman with her hair in an Amish bonnet and wearing a floor length home spun dress.

Here’s how the study worked. Researchers had women place temporary tattoos on their lower backs and sent them to a well-known beach. The women were instructed to lay on the beach reading a book, staying on their stomachs so that the tattoo was visible. There were two parts to this study. In the first one, once the woman was in place, researchers watched and counted how many men approached her. In the second, once the woman assumed her position, a male researcher walked around the beach and asked random men whether they would be willing to “respond to three questions about a girl somewhere on the beach.” Every single man they approached said yes.

Dang, that's an absolutely outrageous participation rate for a survey.  I routinely turn down opportunities to participate in phones surveys, but I guess if the topic is a girl on the beach, I might find then time to participate.

Here’s how the researchers summarized their results:

Two experiments were conducted. The first experiment showed that more men (N = 220) approached the tattooed confederates and that the mean latency of their approach was quicker. A second experiment showed that men (N = 440) estimated to have more chances to have a date and to have sex on the first date with tattooed confederates.

I mean, just because a woman might be willing to go through a prolonged, painful and all but permanent procedure to look attractive (and well, let's face it, available) is no reason to suspect she might be willing to do "things" that some other women might not, right?

Interestingly, the study did refute an earlier finding about women with tattoos. In 2007, researchers from the University of Liverpool showed that men rated women with tattoos as physically less attractive, but sexually more promiscuous than those without. In this study, researchers found that physical attractiveness—as rated by the men on the beach who agreed to answer questions about the woman—wasn’t impacted by the tattoo. Another study in 2005 also found that tattoos don’t change attractiveness, but do negatively impact a person’s credibility, regardless of their gender.

So tattoos might not be bad for picking up dudes at the beach, but they might impact what those dudes think of you in the long run.

Yes, It Is About the Damn Nail!

It's Not About the Nail from Jason Headley on Vimeo.

And Wombat-Socho at The Other McCain has the grand Rule 5 compendium up at "Rule 5 Sunday: Desert Plains". I'm still trying to figure out his naming scheme. I could just ask him, but what's the fun in that?

Silly Canadians

You know you are in trouble when a crowd of baying Canadian hockey fans stops laughing and helps you complete your butchering of the Star Spangled Banner.

Folk and jazz singer Alexis Normand claims she had only a few hours to learn the American national anthem, however her embarrassment was broadcast nationally during Saturday's Portland Winterhawks-Halifax Mooseheads game.

The Canadian singer started to turn her rendition into a live train wreck as she approached the third line, but in true professional style she powered through, much to the mirth of the crowd who helped her along.

To be fair, I wouldn't know the words to "Oh, Canada" any better, and likely much worse.  But they're Canada and we're the US.  Anyway, it's close enough for jazz.

And Wombat-Socho at The Other McCain has the grand Rule 5 compendium up at "Rule 5 Sunday: Desert Plains". I'm still trying to figure out his naming scheme. I could just ask him, but what's the fun in that?

The Gasohol Two-Step

Round and Round the Ethanol Goes

If you want to understand why people are so down on the American biofuel industry, look no further than the ethanol trade relationship between Brazil and the United States. Last year, the US imported 9.6 million barrels of ethanol from Brazil. And yet Brazil imported 2 million barrels from the US.

How does that happen, you ask? Here’s how it works. The US has a renewable fuel standard that sets quotas for both corn-based ethanol and ethanol produced from “advanced” sources like cellulose or sugarcane. But actual production of those “advanced” biofuels has fallen woefully short of those mandates. To meet that shortfall, producers import sugarcane ethanol from Brazil, where the sugarcane industry is heavily subsidized.

Once you add those 9.6 million barrels of advanced Brazilian ethanol to the vast quantities of corn ethanol producers are churning out to meet the other side of the mandate, the US is left with more ethanol than can be safely blended in to gasoline. As a result, we ended up shipping 2 million barrels of corn ethanol right back to Brazil.

The environmental cost of shuttling these barrels back and forth across the globe makes this more than just an absurd story of misguided government policy. The fact that this program is effectively subsidizing needless voyages by high-emitting ships makes a mockery of biofuel’s dubious status as a “green” program.

The gasohol mandate in the United States is a bit of bi-partisan insanity.  It does not save appreciable energy, or produce less carbon dioxide than straight fossil fuels, it actively damages functioning engines, it's environmentally a nightmare, and it deprives the world's poor of cheap food by converting food to vehicle fuel.  The only people it benefits are the ag businesses the mandate helps artificially support, and the politicians they contribute to.

Sharknado!

Another post courtesy of Watts Up With That, the news of a fine new Sci-Fi film in production, (and no I can't say that with a straight face), Sharknado!  What could be worse than sharks or tornadoes?  Sharks and tornadoes combined!

Anthony Watt is concerned that they might invoke global warming climate change as the excuse to combine sharks and tornadoes:

No, really, after the week we’ve had where every opportunist out there is trying to blame global warming for the Moore Oklahoma tornado, I’m not kidding. Sharknadoes are the new EF10. The brief description:

I can only hope they invoke global warming caused weather extremes as the excuse for the swirling mass of dust, debris and sharks, as it makes the notion seem even sillier than it already does.

I just noted the cast.  Tara Reid, of course, was Amanda Bynes before Amanda thought up stole the role of the perky nosed little bad girl:

I look forward to watching it some gloomy winter day when it's too cold and windy to fish, or even go outside.

Sea Level Rise Starting to Slow

Now, we're talking derivatives here, not absolute rates.  Sea level is still rising, but according to satellite measurements, the rate at which it has been rising is declining.  From Watts Up With That:

Obama was right–‘the rise of the oceans began to slow’

From his June 4, 2008 speech on winning the Democratic primaries:

“This was the moment when the rise of the ocean began to slow and our planet began to heal"

Here’s the proof: Ten year running mean sea level rise from satellite altimetry.

Figure 1. Decadal (overlapping) rates for sea level rise as determined from the satellite sea level rise observations, 1993-2011 (data available from http://sealevel.colorado.edu/).

Even local tide gauges show similar long term effects, which can only be observed in long-term averages.  From NOAA for Baltimore:

Of course, if you actually bother to look at the x-axis on the top graph,  you'll see that the rate of sea level rise started to decline in about 2000 (the highest point is centered on 1996-2005), so if one were to blame a politician at all, you would have to blame George W. Bush.  But he's too modest to take credit.

Because that Colbert-Busch Deal Worked Out So Well For Them

Democrats want Jimmy Buffett’s sister to run for Congress

Democrats are reportedly wishing the sister of musician Jimmy Buffett would run for Congress in a coastal Alabama district.

Citing a Democratic party source, the Mobile Press-Register reported that Gulf Shores, Ala. restaurant owner Lucy “LuLu” Buffett is being mentioned as possible Democrat to run in the heavily-Republican district.

The Buffetts are from Mobile. Lucy Buffett is well-known in the area for her eponymous beach restaurant, LuLu’s. She was a 2012 delegate to the Democratic National Convention in North Carolina.

A few low information voters might vote for a woman because she's a rock star's sister.  But they're democrats anyway.

New Oyster Rehab Project in Marylang

Harris Creek, MD

From the Chesapeake Bay Program blog:

...“We are watching about 27 million juvenile oysters being planted into Harris Creek,” Westby said, as a hose blasted the oysters off the deck into the waterway, which is a tributary to the Choptank River and Chesapeake Bay.

The $31 million Harris Creek project is one of the largest and best-protected oyster restoration efforts ever attempted on the East Coast. NOAA is working with the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, the U.S Army Corps of Engineers, and the Oyster Recovery Partnership, to plant about 400 million oysters inside a protected sanctuary.

In this no-harvesting zone, sonar helps the scientists aim the baby oysters on top of reefs re-built with granite and recycled shells.

I agree that oyster restoration areas should be no harvest zones.  However, we've seen "oyster sanctuaries" in Chesapeake Bay suddenly be opened to commercial fishing once the oysters became of marketable size, with the excuse being that they would just die of disease anyway.  Sanctuaries are also routinely plundered by poachers, as little is done to protect them other than to declare them off limits.

The 4,500 acre Harris Creek oyster sanctuary was created in 2009 by Governor Martin O’Malley’s administration. His Department of Natural Resources that year more than doubled the amount of no-harvesting zones in the state’s portion of the Chesapeake Bay, which now protect 24 percent of the Bay’s remaining reefs.

The new approach, being tested here in Harris Creek, is to focus on the oysters, not the oystermen. However, watermen will likely benefit more in the long run. Studies have suggested that protected reefs generate multitudes of oyster larvae, fish and crabs that spread out to populate a much wider area.

 4,500 acres seems like a lot of water to put into oyster restoration; and it is compared to previous efforts. But I put the maps up to remind us of how trivial that really is in the scope of the entire Chesapeake Bay, which is just about 4,500 square miles.  There are  640 acres in a square mile.

I still maintain that the best oyster restoration would a 5 or more year moratorium on oyster harvesting in the Bay, to find out whether oysters still have to potential to grow and spread without hindrance in the absence of fishing pressure.

All Lesbian All The Time

Over at the Other McCain this week.

This, of course, concerns the matter of Kaitlyn Hunt, the 18 year old Indian River Florida girl, who has been charged with the statutory rape of a 14 year old schoolmate, after having been repeatedly warned away by the younger girls parents, and then helping her run away one night for some sapphic debauchery.

Booking photo

Kaitlyn has become a cause célèbre in the gay and liberal community, with the assumption that she is being persecuted for her homosexuality, while more conservative detractors reply that many 18 year old (and even younger) boys have been put through the same ringer for less and that Kaitlyn is trying to get off on the idea that all female homosexual are privileged compared to heterosexuals.   Both points may be true.

The facts seem fairly settled.  Kaitlyn did, in fact, help the girl run away from home, and had sex with her at school, and at her home after she ran away.  Kaitlyn was 18 at the time, and the other girl 14.  That's pretty clearly statutory rape in any jurisdiction you care to name in the US and certainly in this one, if you ignore the same sex aspect. 

Are women entitled to a different standard when it comes to committing statutory rape?  Clearly there were any number of women teachers in the last few years who thought so, and found out to the contrary to their great disappointment.  Similarly, does the homosexual aspect make it tolerable, since homosexuals have been discriminated against in the past, and are somehow owed "affirmative action?"  That didn't work out very well for Jerry Sandusky.  Or is it only the combination of women, homosexuality and underage sex that makes it quasi-legitimate?

The question of statutory rape is a difficult one. Many jurisdictions make exceptions for cases where the couple in disputed differ in age by a small amount, so called 'Romeo and Juliet' laws.  One exists in Florida, but it only allows the prosecutors to offer a reduction of the "sex criminal" label for the future.  The offer has been made and rejected by Kaitlyn and her family and lawyers as insufficient.

While I'm not anxious to see Kaitlyn spend time in jail for this affair of the, err, heart, maybe this trial and whatever follows can be the basis for a sensible conversation, and perhaps even some action on the problem of stupid sentences for young adults for minor sexual offenses. 

Despite an axe, or a least a good sized hatchet to grind, Stacy has the best coverage of this story:

• May 27: The Story Too Good to Be True
• May 26: In Search of Liberal ‘Principle,’ and Also: Does #FreeKate Have a Larger Agenda?
• May 25: Aggravating Circumstances: Against the #FreeKate Campaign for Sexual Anarchy
• May 25: #FreeKate Lies Rejected by Daily Kos Staffer, and Other New Developments
• May 24: Because She’s Cute, That’s Why
• May 24: BREAKING: Kaitlyn Hunt Refuses Plea Offer, Will Face Trial on June 20
• May 23: Damn You, #FreeKate Liars! UPDATE: Parents of 14-Year-Old Girl Speak Out
• May 22: Liberals Now Arguing for a Lesbian’s Right to Have Sex With a 14-Year-Old Girl 

And Wombat-Socho at The Other McCain has the grand Rule 5 compendium up at "Rule 5 Sunday: Desert Plains". I'm still trying to figure out his naming scheme. I could just ask him, but what's the fun in that?

Memorial Day Fishing Report

With the wind finally having died to an acceptable level, I called Trevor away from his Memorial Day Barbeque for some fishing.

We tried a little out in the channel where  a few boats were trolling, but despite a good number of marks on the bottom, there were no fish biting. So we headed off to the usual "Location X"

We tried a few thing there.  We had a few bites, but no hook ups jigging at the bottom of the discharge, and then we tried some top, using popping plugs of various sorts.  We ended up under this Osprey nest, where the male took off and circled anxiously, while the female stayed to ward us off should we invade (and clucked madly at us). 

It turned out to be the hot area of the day.  You can see the crane the Osprey nest is on in the back right of this shot.  Around 6 PM the fishing turned on, and I got this first 20 inch fish (after it swung and missed at Trevor's lure).

But Trevor countered with this 25 inch fish, that was slightly the worse for wear (we don't know what happened to it's tail; it looked like it was attacked by something).  By 7 PM the fishing was practically hot, we quickly caught our remaining 2 fish over 18 inches and headed home.

Memorial Day 2013 at the Beach

As I said yesterday, the weather for the Memorial Day weekend just keeps getting better and better.  The wind is down today, and the temperature up into the mid 70's.

There was a pretty good turn out of people enjoying the beach too.  A father and son team trying a little surf fishing.

Eastern Tiger Swallowtail "puddling", sipping a bit of baywater to keep their water and salts level up.

 A homemade toy, abandoned for someone else to play with.

Another father and son team out kayaking.

Georgia, with Skye hanging close, looking for sharks teeth.  It was a low tide, and we found quite a few, but nothing of great note.

Stupidity in Education

Teacher fired for saying "negro" in Spanish class

Fired for word 'negro'? A Bronx teacher has filed a lawsuit claiming she was fired for using the word 'negro' in class. 'Negro' is the Spanish word for the color black.

One of the first lessons one learns in English class is that context is everything. The same holds true in Spanish.

Take the case of Petrona Smith. She says in a lawsuit that she was fired from teaching at Bronx PS 211 in March 2012 after a seventh-grader reported that she'd used the "N" word, according to The New York Post.

'Negro.'

Smith doesn't deny using the word. But she argues that everyone uses it, when speaking Spanish. She was teaching the Spanish words for different colors, and the color "black" in Spanish is "negro." She also taught the junior high school students, in this bilingual school, that the Spanish term for black people is "moreno." And by the way, Smith, who is from the West Indies, is black.

I'm old enough that I remember when negro was the polite word for nxxxxxs, blacks, African-'mericans, or whatever word it is we're supposed to be  using today, in the few cases that we're permitted to mention race, ethnicity or continent of origin, or whatever it is.

If I recall correctly, the Spanish word "negro" is pronounced a little more like "nay-grow" and less like the American word "knee-grow," but that distinction may not be clear when spoken by a West Indian black "African American West Indian" to a Bronx speaking audience.

I guess they get the education their parents deserve by tolerating this insanity.

Midnite Music - Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy

And Wombat-Socho at The Other McCain has the grand Rule 5 compendium up at "Rule 5 Sunday: Desert Plains". I'm still trying to figure out his naming scheme. I could just ask him, but what's the fun in that?

Have I Said We Have Cicadas, Yet?

A little video I shot of a couple of our new guests, doing what they do best, sitting around making the droning noise. Crank up the sound and you can hear it.

Sunday Beach Report 5/26/13

As the Memorial Day weekend goes on, our weather continues to improve.  The wind is down to a mere 6-15 from the northeast, and the temperature rocketing up through the mid 60s to low 70s as we walked.

 As you can see, the tide was still way out, though not as far a yesterday, and a number of the regular fossil hunters were out.  Georgia and I did OK for numbers, but didn't score anything especially picture worthy, just some jar fillers.

I don't know how they managed to get this boat over that sand bar from the Calvert Beach boat ramp, but I assume it took a lot of work.

Somebody optimistic trying it an easier way.

Reign of Pain Update

Old Faithful Geyser, Yellowstone National Park

National Park Police Stops Sequester Furloughs

Furloughs for the U.S. Park Police forced by the budget cuts known as sequestration will end June 1, the National Park Service announced Friday, because the agency was able to find other savings.

“We’re ending the furloughs,” Park Service Director Jonathan B. Jarvis said in an interview, a month after the force of 747 sworn officers and support staff members in three cities began staying home one day per pay period in order to take 12 to 14 unpaid days off by Sept. 30. “We have resolved this within the Park Police budget.”

Tower Falls, Yellowstone National Park

In other words, they weren't getting sufficient attention to the cuts by furloughing personnel, so they looked around at the NPS budget, and found some other waste that they would rather trim than have their employees suffer loss of income.  I would call that a victory for the sequester and cut more next year.

The decision does not stave off staffing shortages through the Memorial Day holiday weekend, when tourists will flood into Washington and the Rolling Thunder motorcycle rally is expected to bring 400,000 bikers to the city. But Park Service officials said that security would not be compromised on the holiday.

The U.S. Park Police force was the only federal law enforcement agency furloughed under the $85 billion in budget cuts.

The police union had brought public attention to the furloughs for months, saying staffing shortages were compromising safety.

However, I would still maintain that the sequester is working less than ideally.  The size of government needs to be cut, and people working for the government need to back to jobs that produce goods and services instead of consuming tax dollars.  While furloughing workers, and cutting back on perks of government jobs will save some money, it doesn't really address the problem of swollen government very much.  However, it does signal that the easy ride is over.