Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Hope in the Time of the Plague

Willis Eschenbach, an occasional writer at Watts UP With That, who seems to have a great statistical talent, as well as a way of making sense of data has evaluated the data from the Diamond Princess, the first cruise ship quarantined, and has what seems like good news: Diamond Princess Mysteries

First, despite ample opportunity, 83% of the passengers and crew never got the disease. Age didn't make much difference. So, whether it was the isolation after the problem was discovered or a wide spread natural immunity to the virus, most people were spared. Either is good news for us, and dramatically cuts down the severity of our expectations.

Of those who got the disease 48% had no symptoms. Very young were largely spared symptoms. Starting at 20, many more showed symptoms, but it declined as they got older. Even older people had about a 50% of asymptomatic disease. This is bad news for spreading the virus, but good for having it.

Finally, some historical perspective:

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