The smaller (and skinnier) of the two keeper stripers.
Sunday, November 6, 2011
A Little More Fishing 11/6/11
The smaller (and skinnier) of the two keeper stripers.
Sun Came Out at the Beach
Some tall Tulip Poplars (Liriodendron tulipifera) in their gold. Already many of their leaves have fallen.
Global Warming or Not, US Cooled Over Last Decade
NCDC data shows that the contiguous USA has not warmed in the past decade, summers are cooler, winters are getting colder
There has been a lot of noise in the past week or so about the results of the BEST study, which at best, confirmed the long well known rise in temperatures from the late 19th century through most of the 20th, which has not been a point contended by anyone serious. One point that keeps coming up, a major bone of contention, is that there has been no statistically significant warming trend since about 1998. This is both less and more revealing than it seems. Most of us realize intuitively that a short trend in wildly varying data is unlikely to be "real". Statistical significance is a means scientists us to test whether an effect is likely to be due to random noise, or due to an underlying relationship.
Since the high temperature, El Nino year of 1998, temperatures have fluctuated, staying high relative to the 20th century, but not showing a particular increasing trend. This has prompted Global Warming proponents to propose mechanisms to account for the lack of warming (Chinese smog is the leading contender), and complain that 10 (or 12 or whatever) years is insufficient to detect an increase.
Today's post over at Watts UP with That shows that over the last 10 years, temperatures in the contiguous United States have actually decreased. If you look at the data for each region, it's pretty remarkable.
When you talk to people about global warming, almost everyone will report that it seems warmer now than it has in the past. I truly wonder how much of that is people conforming their memories to media reports of global warming.
Try this simple thought experiment. Imagine two years like, say last year, with the exception that at every point in time, Year 2 is either 1 degree F higher (or lower, if you like). Without an instrumental record of the temperatures, would you be able to distinguish between them? I doubt it.
There has been a lot of noise in the past week or so about the results of the BEST study, which at best, confirmed the long well known rise in temperatures from the late 19th century through most of the 20th, which has not been a point contended by anyone serious. One point that keeps coming up, a major bone of contention, is that there has been no statistically significant warming trend since about 1998. This is both less and more revealing than it seems. Most of us realize intuitively that a short trend in wildly varying data is unlikely to be "real". Statistical significance is a means scientists us to test whether an effect is likely to be due to random noise, or due to an underlying relationship.
Today's post over at Watts UP with That shows that over the last 10 years, temperatures in the contiguous United States have actually decreased. If you look at the data for each region, it's pretty remarkable.
When you talk to people about global warming, almost everyone will report that it seems warmer now than it has in the past. I truly wonder how much of that is people conforming their memories to media reports of global warming.
Try this simple thought experiment. Imagine two years like, say last year, with the exception that at every point in time, Year 2 is either 1 degree F higher (or lower, if you like). Without an instrumental record of the temperatures, would you be able to distinguish between them? I doubt it.
Oklahoma Shaken by 5.6 Magnitude Quake
U.S. Geological Survey is reporting that the latest in a series of earthquakes in Oklahoma is the strongest ever recorded in the state.About the same size (a hair smaller) than the quake that hit Virginia in August this year. While we suffered no damage to speak of, Washington D.C. suffered significant building damage and the Washington Monument remains closed while they try to figure out how to repair it.
According to USGS , the earthquake that struck at 10:53 p.m. Saturday was upgraded to a magnitude 5.6 after early calculations listed it as a 5.2. The epicenter is four miles east of Sparks in Lincoln County, 21 miles northeast of Shawnee.
Lincoln County Emergency Management is reporting significant damage in the southern parts of the county. In some cases chimneys have collapsed through the roofs of homes. Air conditioning ducts collapsed through the ceiling at the Prague library.
Several roadways have buckled, including Highway 62 near County Road 3470 and other county roads.
It comes after a shocking 4.8 earthquake that occurred in the early morning hours Saturday near Prague, Okla.
Aftershocks were felt for hours following Saturday's first quake, which Amie Gibson, a research scientist for the Oklahoma Geological Survey, said was the strongest to hit the state in nearly sixty years.
That is, until this most recent quake.
Gibson said Saturday that aftershocks from the first earthquake could occur for days.
I was sitting at my desk when we had a 5.6 magnitude earthquake. I’ve never felt anything like it. It was long, at least a minute I think. My computer was jumping up and down, and it felt like the vibration of a huge boom box right outside my office window. At some point, my front door, which is just outside my office door, sounded like something was coming through it. It was a sound I haven’t heard before. I ran to the bedroom calling my husband, and get this, he was standing by a chest holding my perfume bottles (on a little crystal tray) steady. As I ran to find him, I could hear glass in my sideboard and china cabinet rattle, and our grandfather clock, which hasn’t worked in years, chimed or the pendulums were just in agony and letting me know.Sounds like they've had a series of earthquakes of which this has been the biggest. Let's hope the record stands for a while.
Who's Kidding Who?
Overzealous cleaner ruins £690,000 artwork that she thought was dirty: She scoured off a layer of paint in a sculpture by late German artist Martin Kippenberger on loan to a museum in Dortmund
An overzealous cleaner in Germany has ruined a piece of modern art worth £690,000 after mistaking it for an eyesore that needed a good scrub.For £689,999, I'll find a way to restore the patina on the trough.
The sculpture by the German artist Martin Kippenberger, widely regarded as one of the most talented artists of his generation until his death in 1997, had been on loan to the Ostwall Museum in Dortmund when it fell prey to the cleaner's scouring pad.
The work, called When It Starts Dripping From the Ceiling (Wenn's anfÃĪngt durch die Decke zu tropfen), comprised a rubber trough placed underneath a rickety wooden tower made from slats. Inside the trough, Kippenberger had spread a layer of paint representing dried rainwater. He thought it was art: the cleaner saw it as a challenge, and set about making the bucket look like new.
A spokeswoman for the museum told German media that the female cleaner "removed the patina from the four walls of the trough".
"It is now impossible to return it to its original state," she said, adding that it had been on loan to the museum from a private collector and was valued by insurers at €800,000 (£690,000).
The title of this post comes from the short story "Narrow Valley", by R.A. Lafferty. You can read it here on line.
Is Cold Fusion Heating Up Again?
Italian physicist and inventor Andrea Rossi has conducted a public demonstration of his "cold fusion" machine, the E-Cat, at the University of Bologna, showing that a small amount of input energy drives an unexplained reaction between atoms of hydrogen and nickel that leads to a large outpouring of energy, more than 10 times what was put in.I am not a nuclear physicist, but I know of no physical laws which forbid "cold fusion". The barrier energy between the proton at the core of a hydrogen atom, and the nickel nucleus is very high, but in a quantum world, where a proton can be a wave, lots of odd things happen, and it's very difficult to say anything is impossible, only highly unlikely.
The first successful cold fusion experiment was reported two decades ago, but the process has forever been met with heavy skepticism. It's a seemingly impossible process in which two types of atoms, typically a light element and a heavier metal, seem to fuse together, releasing pure heat that can be converted into electricity. The process is an attractive energy solution for two reasons: Unlike in nuclear fission, the reaction doesn't give off dangerous radiation. Unlike the fusion processes that take place in the sun, cold fusion doesn't require extremely high temperatures.
But the experimentalists who have supposedly demonstrated cold fusion over the years have been unable to explain the underlying mechanism that drives the miraculous reaction they claim to observe, and so the scientific community has largely turned its back on this line of research. Most physicists — as well as the United States Department of Energy (DoE), academic journals, and the U.S. Patent Office — consider cold fusion machines to be hoaxes, because they say physics rules out the possibility of room-temperature nuclear fusion.
Rossi has not published any details about the inner workings of the E-Cat because the device is not patent-protected, but other cold fusion researchers have theories as to how the process works. Peter Hagelstein, an MIT professor of electrical engineering and computer science and one of the most mainstream proponents of cold fusion research, thinks the process may involve vibrational energy in the metal's lattice driving nuclear transitions that lead to fusion.The experiments showing the systems produce more energy than supplied, and more than can be explained by simple chemistry are thought provoking, but not yet iron clad. Intelligent or not, fooling scientists isn't the hardest thing in the world; Penn and Teller could pull it off with a few hours to set it up.
But wouldn't it be funny if it worked out, and Italy became the center of a new energy renaissance?
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Why Science Majors Change Their Minds
But, it turns out, middle and high school students are having most of the fun, building their erector sets and dropping eggs into water to test the first law of motion. The excitement quickly fades as students brush up against the reality of what David E. Goldberg, an emeritus engineering professor, calls “the math-science death march.” Freshmen in college wade through a blizzard of calculus, physics and chemistry in lecture halls with hundreds of other students. And then many wash out.Yep, saw a lot of friends and acquaintances quit school or change majors along the way. One post-doc friend quit in the middle of the postdoc to go into finance. Others left to get into medicine. One person I know quit in mid career to make furniture. There are (or at least were) easier and/or rewarding ways to make a living.
Studies have found that roughly 40 percent of students planning engineering and science majors end up switching to other subjects or failing to get any degree. That increases to as much as 60 percent when pre-medical students, who typically have the strongest SAT scores and high school science preparation, are included, according to new data from the University of California at Los Angeles. That is twice the combined attrition rate of all other majors.
Obama Insults Sarkozy, French
“I want to make mention that this is our first meeting since the arrival of the newest Sarkozy, and so I want to congratulate Nicolas and Carla on the birth of Giulia,” Mr. Obama told reporters shortly after his arrival at the G-20, with Mr. Sarkozy at his side. “And I informed Nicolas on the way in that I am confident that Giulia inherited her mother’s looks rather than her father’s, which I think is an excellent thing.”
He added, “And so now we share one of the greatest challenges and blessings of life, and that is being fathers to our daughters.”
Mr. Sarkozy, who is said to be very conscious about his looks, did not appear greatly amused by the comment, and some observers who attended the meeting said Mr. Obama’s remark fell flat.
At least Barack didn't diss Carla; that would really upset me.“The U.S. President’s picnic on the ‘physical’ of his French counterpart is only the latest episode of reports [which are] rather cool at best, at worst frankly tense,” said L’Observateur newspaper, which called the two leaders “the best enemies.”
Another French publication said Mr. Obama had chosen to compliment Mr. Sarkozy “in a way unique to say the least, before the cameras around the world.”
The French celebrity website Staragora said Mr. Obama’s comment was “risky” and “not very cool, for the French president [was] humiliated in public.”
“Barack Obama has openly and publicly ridiculed the physical [appearance of] Nicolas Sarkozy,” Staragora said, adding that Mr. Obama’s comments were delivered “without pity.”
Featured in Maggie's list of Rule 5 posts for the week along with her own post on the 10 hottest blonds (how can anyone limit the field like that?).
You Can Fly at the Beach
So what's that white speck up in the sky down past the cottages?
Hippie Damaged at Occupy Modesto
Modesto ain't New York, mofo. We don't go for that $#!* around here.
Modesto isn't San Francisco or L.A. either...
Modesto isn't San Francisco or L.A. either...
Rule 5 Saturday - Avril Lavigne - She Could Be Your Girlfriend
I decided to get away from the actresses this week, and go back to singers for Rule 5 Saturday. I ran into a picture of Avril somewhere and decided she was a worthy subject.
Another Canadian, Avril vindicates my ongoing belief that we should simply conquer Canada and be done with it. They would have something real to resent us for at that point, and we'd get, well, nevermind, we get it all anyway.
She started young, she signed a $2 million contract with Arista when she was 16, and had her debut album "Let Go" at 17, in 2002. At this point, she has sold over 30 million albums.
Not the world's best student, she was often in trouble in class. Her father bought her microphones, drums, guitars, karaoke machines, and set up the basement as a studio in an effort to provide her some other other outlet for her energy. It appears to have worked for him, even better than it worked for me...
She seems to like the slightly slutty look. Me too, at least on her.
Avril has had a bit of a contentious relationship with the media that cover entertainment, expressing a feeling that she wasn't being taken seriously as a song writer...
Now that was deep, wasn't it? I really like how she plays three different girls, including the soulless ginger.
When you sell 30 million albums, you can pretty much tell the media where to stick it, and how deep.
I said I chose her as a singer, but of course, a little crossover into acting is kind of expected. Once you get over stage fright, you might as well, right? Anyway, she has also had some acting work, including a role on "Sabrina, the Teenage Witch", a voice over for a possum in "Over the Hedge" (what a waste), and a role in "The Flock" with Richard Gere (playing the bad girl).
She also played a part in "Fast Food Nation", where she played a
In 2008 she launched her own clothing line, which gave her additional excuses to dress up a little slutty:
Abbey Dawn is designed by Lavigne herself. Kohl's describes Abbey Dawn as a "juniors lifestyle brand", which incorporates skull, zebra, and star patterns, purples and "hot pinks and blacks". Lavigne, who wore some of the clothes and jewelery from her line at various concerts before its official launch, pointed out that she was not merely licensing her name to the collection. "I actually am the designer. What's really important to me is that everything fits well and is well-made, so I try everything on and approve it all." The clothing line incorporates Lavigne's musical style and lyrics, "after the release of my first album, I realized how much fashion was involved in my musical career
She has also done quite a bit of philanthropic work, including founding her own foundation:
"The Avril Lavigne Foundation". The next day, the foundation's official website was launched. The foundation aims to help young people with serious illnesses and disabilitiesand works with leading charitable organizations;The foundation partners with the Easter Seals, Make-A-Wish foundation and Erase MS, the latter two being charities Lavigne has previously worked with. Her work with the Make-A-Wish foundation was the inspiration behind her own charity, with Lavigne stating, "I just really wanted to do more".
And she's not bad looking as a vampire...
Ted is featuring another Canadian, Lexa Doiga this week. Mike at the Classical Liberal has something about Eva Green fixing the housing market. Maggie from Maggie's Notebook is featuring Adriana Lima this week, while the Classical Liberal is featuring Joan Jett. American Power blog linked this in his Rule 5 post "Late Sunday". Meanwhile, my effusive thanks to The One and Only Wombat over at the The Other McCain, who acknowledged all my Rule 5 ramblings from last week in his weekly canonical Rule 5 compilation.
A Close Call
It seems like a lot of good animal videos around lately. This one makes you wonder how Jonah felt.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Great Math Quiz
Another, more serious puzzler:
Al’s favorite hobby is the piano. One day he has a traffic accident. As he is pulled from the rubble he notices that the dexterity of one of his fingers is somehow impaired. He is greatly worried, and goes to an emergency room, where he finds exactly one physician in attendance. It quickly turns out that time here is of the essence, if Al’s finger is to be restored to its former piano-playing level. Luckily there is no other patient competing for the doctor’s attention.Learn to play the piano without the finger, Al.
But as the doctor is about to treat Al, something unfortunate happens. For just then Bea is brought in, who has suffered a serious injury to one of her legs, which will turn into paralysis unless immediately taken care of. Loss of one’s leg being a bigger problem than a slight loss in digital dexterity, the doctor of course immediately turns from Al to Bea.
And then something else very strange happens. Al notices that he has suffered another injury he and the doctor have overlooked so far—an injury which, if not taken care of immediately, will cause him to lose the use of both his legs. By virtue of this fact, he of course immediately regains the doctor’s attention.
Then things get even stranger. For Al asks the doctor to please ignore his legs for the time being and just focus on making sure his finger is fully restored. At first the doctor refuses. “How can I possibly justify not dealing with Bea’s more serious leg injury for the sake of dealing with your overly intense concern about your finger.” “Never mind,” says Al, “Bea is not going to be treated, no matter what. If you don’t treat my finger, you will have to treat my legs. So Bea is truly out of the running. She is not going to get priority. And given that you are committed to treating me, wouldn’t you do better if you did what I preferred, which is to have my finger rather than my legs treated first? Isn’t that a win-win transaction?”
The doctor now has to choose among three alternatives: Treating Al’s hands first, treating Bea’s leg first, or treating Al’s two leg injury first. Each of these seems for different reasons unacceptable.
How can he treat Al’s finger when Bea’s more serious leg injury needs attention? How can he treat Bea’s leg injury when Al’s far more serious leg injury isn’t getting treated? How can he treat Al’s leg injury when Al clamors to have his finger treated instead? We are in a sort of cycle.
How is it to be broken? At least one plausible way of breaking it, my own guess is that it is the most plausible, is to not let Al opt for getting his finger treated. He retains his priority over Bea only if he has is leg injury treated, not otherwise. But that means that we are rejecting a win-win transaction. For that is what the doctor’s treating Al’s finger rather than his legs surely is.
But why exactly is that?
Why exactly shouldn’t the doctor accommodate Al’s preferences? The reason, in brief, is that Al has a strong claim on the doctor’s attention for his serious injury and a much weaker claim for his less serious injury. That’s a common phenomenon—having a strong claim to something we care less about as compared to something else we care more about but have a less strong claim to. (We may value what belongs to someone else more than we value something that belongs to us, to pick the most rudimentary illustration.)
If the doctor were to attend to what Al has a strong preference but a weak claim to—treat his finger—Bea would rightly be able to protest: “What, for the sake of a mere finger, I am to lose the use of my leg.”
Republican Dirty Trick in Wisconsin
By filing unexpectedly 11 days before the expected filing by democrats, this gives Walker additonal time to raise money to fight the recall effort.
The Democratic Party of Wisconsin, which had announced its intention last month to launch the recall Nov. 15, quickly branded the move a "dirty Republican ploy," but it's not clear what Brandt's loyalties are.Bwaahaahaa! Found at Althouse.
"This is the Republican ploy we have been predicting would happen," says Graeme Zielinski, a spokesman with the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. "The only reason this was filed was to open the dirty rain shower of unlimited corporate cash."
In This Corner, Weighing in at 10 lbs...
Muggles. In the other corner, weighing in at 75 lbs, Fido! Now fight!
Dog and Cat Slap Fight! - Watch MoreFunny Videos
Dog and Cat Slap Fight! - Watch MoreFunny Videos
Protecting Virginia's Oysters from Maryland
Worried that Marylanders will buy up precious James River oyster seeds — juvenile oysters referred to as spat — Virginia regulators have taken the unusual step of capping the amount that watermen are allowed to sell. The move, unanimously approved last month by the Virginia Marine Resources Commission, required an emergency amendment to a state law. It limits watermen to 40,000 bushels until Dec. 31 and 80,000 more in the new year.In general, I'm opposed to moving wild oysters from place to place, even within the bay, because of the risk of spreading oyster diseases, and invasive species. If they must be moved, the distance they are moved should be held to a minimum, say within a single tributary if possible.
Watermen seldom approach those harvest levels, said James Wesson, the commission's director of oyster restoration. But demand could grow, he said, because Maryland is investing in oyster aquaculture.
Noting the bay's oysters have been devastated by disease, pollution and overfishing, Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley last year created a $2.2 million low-interest loan program to entice people into oyster farming.
There are few oyster hatcheries — places where baby oysters are grown and sold — in Maryland, said Karl Roscher, aquaculture director for the Maryland Department of Natural Resources. As a result, attention turned to the James, the only area of the bay with plentiful seeds, he said.
Chesapeake Bay Getting Better - Maybe
Efforts to reduce pollution of the Chesapeake Bay are starting to pay off, a major new study says, finding that despite weather-driven ups and downs, the "dead zone" that stresses fish and shellfish every summer has actually shrunk, on average, in recent years.
The study, published in the current issue of the scientific journal Estuaries and Coasts, appears to explain away recent research finding no real improvement in the "dead zone," where oxygen levels in the bay drop so low each summer that fish and shellfish struggle to survive. The oxygen gets sucked out of the water by the breakdown of massive algae blooms that grow every spring, fed by sewage, farm and urban runoff and air pollution.
The size of the dead zone in early summer has actually been getting worse, on average, in recent years, recent research had found. That was puzzling and troubling to scientists, who'd wondered why the zone wasn't shrinking in response to pollution reduction efforts. Water sampling has tracked long-term declines in algae-feeding nitrogen flowing into the bay from the Susquehanna River, the Chesapeake's largest tributary.
But looking at the dead zone in late summer, the researchers found that since the mid- to late 1980s, it has gotten smaller overall and broken up a little sooner each year.
"On average, the late summer [mid-July through August] dead zone volume in the last decade was about 80% of the volume in the mid-1980s," Rebecca Murphy, a Hopkins doctoral student who is the study's lead author, said in an email. The improvements roughly parallel declines in nitrogen measured in the Susquehanna, she said.
On a scientific level, Kemp, who has been studying the bay for 30-some years, said he was glad the new study resolved doubts about whether the Chesapeake is responding as other water bodies have to reductions in nutrient pollution. "After all this scratching of heads and beating our heads against the wall, we just realized it was right there, had been there all along," he said. Kemp called that twist "embarrassing" but also reassuring.This is good news, if true, and I'm inclined to believe it. However, there's a whiff of post-hoc about this finding. Having agreed ahead of time that the test for the improvement of the Bay as a result of nutrient reduction was a reduction in the overall size of the dead zone, the statistics failed to prove that out. However, upon looking around, and finding that the "no change" scenario was actually composed of a worsening in spring and a bettering in summer, they decided after the fact (post hoc) that the true test of the improvement was the improvement in late summer. How convenient...
Now based on their alleged success in improving the Bay this relatively small amount, they are asking you to trust them that with massive disruptions in agriculture, and other changes, they can produce similar continuing improvements in the future.
Dentist in a Box
Meet Dentist in A Box, the dental emergency kit for the soldier in the field. For basic everyday dental emergencies, this Australian company has created a re-sealable plastic kit approximately the size of a CD (6.3 inches by 5.9 inches) that weighs about an ounce and a half. It can be used for a broken tooth, lost filling or even irritation caused by a sharp tooth edge or orthodontic wire. With The Dentis tin a Box Basic Dental Kit, a soldier can tackle these problems with a temporary fix until he can get to a dentist.I have got to get one of these. I have a mouth full of old fillings, and I would guess that one breaks about every year. Usually it's not worth going to the dentist on an emergency basis, and if it's not hurting I often wait months with a sharp edge. I have one now. A little safe goop to fix that would temporarily fix it until then would be a real boon. Too bad civilians won't be trusted with it.
Although designed by a dentist, the instructions in the kit aren't written in dentist-ese -- they can transform the average person without dental or medical knowledge into a hero on the basic dental emergency front. Between the step by step illustrated instructions, Dentist in A Box makes dental first aid pretty idiot-proof.
Basically, you rinse your mouth and your teeth before squeezing the stuff out of a tube as though it were toothpaste, and applying it where needed. Once out of the tube, it slowly starts to harden. After it has been opened, the tube will still be useable for about six months.
Your Friday Monkey Dacker Human Comparison
Dr. Katherine Pollard: What Makes Us Human? from California Academy of Sciences on FORA.tv
A pretty interesting lecture on the similarities and difference between chimps and humans. For example, humans and dogs die of similar things, but different than humans.
Is that too complicated for you? Well then, here's a picture of a chimp with big balls...
Thursday, November 3, 2011
World Record Striped Bass
IGFA Approves All Tackle Striped Bass World Record
Greg Myerson has caught a monster striped bass in waters of Long Island Sound just off Westbrook, Connecticut that might just be an IGFA all tackle world record. Greg's striped bass tipped the scales at 81.88 pounds. That put it more than three pounds heavier than the then current record holder of a 78.5 lb. striped bass caught in 1982 byDamn, that's a big fish. There have been a lot of rumors of much larger fish (up to and over 100 lbs) caught in pound nets in Chesapeake Bay over the years. Apparently, stripers get smarter as they get older and less likely to be caught on hook and line.
Al McReynolds of Atlantic City, N.J. (photo Kierran Broatch, On the Water Magazine)
Dam Ends Up on Bottom of Chespeake Bay
No, sea level rise did not overwhelm a dam, rather it was demolished and put on the bottom as a place to grow oysters: New reef created in Chesapeake Bay:
Concrete that once blocked fish from swimming up the Patapsco River to spawn has a new life as home for aquatic creatures at the bottom of the Chesapeake Bay.This is a good use for old dams. For the most part, the small dams that exist on Chesapeake Bay tributaries no longer serve much purpose. Most are too small for much electrical generation, and relatively few are used as water sources. Simkins dam, for example, was originally built to power a cardboard recycling plant, but hasn't been used for that purpose for decades. Removing it (and three more unused dams, projects in the works) will allow anadromous fish access to 175 additional river miles for migration and spawning.
Water cannons blasted chunks of the demolished Simkins Dam off a barge Wednesday, completing the structure's transition from a river barrier to an oyster reef the size of two football fields. On Thursday and Monday, the Chesapeake Bay Foundation will seed the site at the mouth of the Chester River with 4 million baby oysters..
Stinky Fish Back in the News
The Chesapeake Bay world is getting ready for some action on the Menhaden issue. In particular, the ASMFC is getting ready to make new policies on the Menhaden take in the Bay, and conservationists are lining up to make sure that the next set goals restrict harvest enough to allow the population to rebound some.
Maryland Attorney General Gansler is asking ASMFC to dramatically increase the threshold for overfishing, to 15% of their maximum spawning potential. Even that seems chintzy to me, but it would be a huge step forward.
Chesapeake Bay Action Plan, a blog by people I sometime agree with, and more often disagree with (I find them a bit shrill most of the time) is asking for the same 15% limit, and an overall management target of 40%. They base this on the importance of Menhaden as food for two important and charismatic species:
As scientists, policymakers, and conservationists dedicated to the health of the Chesapeake Bay, we note that the diet of rockfish (Morone saxatilis) and Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) have changed radically due to the decline in menhaden numbers: Surveys in Chesapeake Bay show menhaden now account for less than 8 percent of the diet of rockfish when historically menhaden comprised as much as 70 percent of the prey consumed by adult rockfish; and in the 1980s, more than 70 percent of the fish delivered to Osprey nests were menhaden, which dropped to less than 27 percent of the Osprey diet in 2006 in the same area studied.Read the rest of the letter, and if you feel moved, write (or post an e-mail) to ASMFC recommending this course of action. You could do worse than to cut and past their recommendations:
Scientists believe that this drop in menhaden consumption may have led to serious problems for these two species: Striped bass in the Bay have shown signs of malnourishment and infections with mycobacteriosis. In 2006, surveys of Osprey nests found that only four of every 10 chicks survived to fledge, well below the 1971 levels of the DDT-era when fewer chicks were hatching but nearly eight of 10 survived to fledge. Chicks were hatching in 2006, but they were starving in the nest as adult Osprey were delivering nearly three times less fish and fish not as nutritious as menhaden to nestlings. See Dr. Bryan D. Watts, Director, Center for Conservation Biology, College of William and Mary, Chesapeake Wildlife in the Balance, Richmond Times-Dispatch, October 19, 2011.
We would urge the adoption of these new 15%/40% MSPs and an accelerated implementation of management measures to achieve the minimum 40 percent management target including a risk-averse coast-wide total allowable catch (TAC). The TAC should include specific quotas that substantially reduce the industrial reduction fishery, especially from the Chesapeake Bay. More than 400 million pounds of menhaden were harvested for this fishery in 2010.You can submit your comments to comments@asmfc.org.
If the Results Seem Too Good to be True...
...They just may be: Dutch psychologist admits he made up research data
A Dutch psychologist has admitted making up data and faking research over many years in studies which were then published in peer-reviewed scientific journals.And what was this work that was important enough to cheat for?
Diederik Stapel, a psychologist working at Tilburg University in the Netherlands, said he had "failed as a scientist" and was ashamed of what he had done, but had been driven to falsifying research by constant pressure to perform...
"I was not able to withstand the pressure to score points, to publish, to always have to be better," he said in his statement. "I wanted too much, too fast. And in a system where there is little control, where people often work alone, I took the wrong path."
Science published a study by Stapel and colleague Siegwart Lindenberg in April which found that people are more likely to discriminate against others when their surroundings are disordered and messy.I have no doubt that he believed his hypothesis to start with, and fudging the work to match his expectations occurred in small steps out of frustration with the real world to conform to his beliefs, coupled with the requirement to "publish or perish". And it's not true. I don't discriminate against anyone...
Alberts said he now wanted to alert readers "that serious concerns have been raised about the validity of the findings in this report."
Found in a post by Smitty at The Other McCain's.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Your Tolerance is Insufficient; You Must Submit
Rose Marie Belforti is a town clerk in Ledyard, New York who refused to sign a marriage license in August for two women after the state enacted the Marriage Equality Act in July. The two women, Katie Carmichael and Deirdre DiBiaggio, don’t even live in New York; they own seasonal property in a nearby town and actually live in Florida. One is an attorney and the other is a filmmaker.
Rose Marie, a mother of four and a grandmother, decided she could not in good conscience sign a same-sex marriage license, so she instead arranged for someone else to do it. The two women chose to come to Ledyard, this small farming town where they don’t even live and where Rose Marie has been the elected clerk for the past ten years, and pressed her decision. Rose Marie did not back down. True to her word, she offered to arrange an appointment for someone else to provide a legitimate signature. There are only around seven licenses a year to even sign at all, and she has since turned over the responsibility of signing (all those!) marriage licenses to another clerk.
So in a rational world, everyone should be happy, right? If I asked someone to do something for me and they told me that it violated their conscience, I’d respect that. If that person offered to find me another person to do what I wanted, I’d appreciate that. I’d even say, “Thank you.” That’s how I raise my own children. This is how reasonable people behave.
Not so in this case. The two women are threatening to sue the town of Ledyard, and the situation has become national news. Rose Marie, whom I completely support, said that she has been “battered over this in the media” and she can’t answer her phone anymore. She could lose her job because the law changed overnight with no consideration for conscience rights. And rather than just “getting married” now as they so wanted to do, the two women have declared they won’t stop until they get her to sign the license. Yeah, that sounds like true love to me.
Who is trying to force their beliefs on whom?
I don't really care one way or another about gay marriage, but I do care about freedom. This woman accommodated them as much as she could. There was no reason they could not proceed with their marriage. There is no need for them to try to make her life hell.
Maryland Plans for Non-Fossil Fuel Future
Maryland’s plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions 25 percent by 2020 meets a series of benchmark tests set by state lawmakers, concludes a new pair of studies by the University of Maryland Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER). The findings should help clear the way for adoption of a full Climate Action Plan next year, the researchers say.I'm sure the University of Maryland's CIER is completely and totally objective, and would give green power a bad report card if they found that it would harm the state. OK, who am I trying to kid? They're totally in the tank and saying what the current Administration wants to be able to say. Not that they needed any prompting to know what that is. Actually, their findings are really only minimally supportive:
Maryland’s 2009 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act ordered independent studies to make sure that its provisions won’t hurt the reliability of the state’s electricity supply or damage the manufacturing sector of the economy. The CIER studies give State plans a passing grade on these scores and project some upsides:
Improves reliability of electric service for consumers and industry;
No expected loss of jobs;
May stimulate some “green” jobs;
No economic harm to Maryland’s manufacturing sector.
Manufacturing Economic ImpactWhen these promises fail to materialize, as is almost inevitable, Maryland will probably experience a concomitant rise in energy prices, a fall in reliability, and a decrease in jobs.
2009 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act (GGRA) requires that cuts in emissions may not cause a significant increase in costs to the manufacturing sector.
Finding: No significant increase in capital or energy costs for the manufacturing sector. Large, electricity-intensive industries, such as chemical plants, will see the greatest energy cost increases – between 1 and 2 percent. Small, less energy-intensive industries, such as printing, could see cost savings as a result of participation in energy conservation programs, such as EmPower Maryland.
Jobs
GGRA says greenhouse gas reduction requirements may not cause reductions in existing manufacturing jobs.
Finding: “Job losses in the manufacturing sector attributable to select CAP policies will be minimal and may not occur at all,” says the economic report. It notes that Maryland’s manufacturing sector has lost jobs since the 1970s, a trend expected to continue with or without the CAP.
Green Jobs
GGRA requires reduction measures to produce a net increase in jobs in Maryland, and encourage new employment opportunities in the State related to energy conservation, alternative energy supply, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction technologies – so called “green jobs.”
Finding: New jobs in each of these categories are expected to grow. Currently, green jobs make up about 3 percent of the state’s workforce. Green job opportunities will be available to those who enhance or modify existing skills.
Electric Reliability
GGRA requires the Maryland Department of the Environment to “ensure the plan does not decrease the likelihood of reliable and affordable electrical service and statewide fuel supply.”
The researchers define “electric reliability” as having adequate amounts of electricity to meet peak summer demand plus a safety margin. These needs can be met by either in-state generation capacity, power importation or by managing demand. Reliability does NOT pertain to disruptions in electricity service caused, for example, by downed wires from fallen trees and branches.
Finding: “We find electricity reliability in Maryland…will improve with the implementation of specific mitigation policies originally identified in the 2008 Climate Action Plan,” the report concludes. “Despite uncertainties in future electricity transmission in Maryland, electricity reliability in the state will be improved with the addition of the three climate mitigation policies.”
It's just too much to hope that they would permit more nuclear plants and allow more safe, clean and reliable (and fishing friendly) power sources.
CIER report here.
Just Shut Up and Die Cheap
Shut up and die cheap! Mickey Kaus channels Instapundit on the new push against early cancer screening:
Many people are concerned that the new “science” that has led to a sudden about-face on testing, coincident with the passage of ObamaCare, is driven by costs rather than patient welfare. This may be unfair, but one of the hazards of politicizing the health care system is that suspicions of, well, politicization of the health care system become unavoidable.
The timing does seem a little Nobel Peace Prizish, doesn’t it? Everybody’s still doing their part to help out! …Just had the 10 year check up (it's been a big month for catching up on deferred medical work). No PSA test. I think my doc doesn't believe in it. I don't think money had anything to do with it, but I'm not sure. I have my doubts, too, but as Mickey points out, I know at least one person who firmly believes his life was saved by the PSA test.
P.S.: Note that that New York Times’ Kolata admits cost concerns are driving some of the new anti-screening efforts. In one case, we’re told not to get PSA tests for prostate cancer because its cost-effectiveness ”does not compare favorably with competing health care priorities.” Those wouldn’t be competing liberal health care priorities, would they? Preventive efforts with a vague payoff? Psychological counseling? Drug treatment? WIC programs? It may be small comfort to people who aren’t getting PSA tests that “competing health care priorities’ were being funded. …
P.P.S.: Why do we assume there is a fixed pot of health care money? Maybe if more people beat cancer they’d be willing to fork over more to pay for other “priorities.”…
P.P.P.S.: If Head Start were subjected to the rigorous cost-benefit analysis that life-saving cancer tests like PSA are now getting, would it survive? …
P.P.P.P.S.: If studies count the anxiety of knowing you have a cancer, do they also count the anxiety of not knowing whether you have a cancer because you haven’t been cleared by the PSA test, or a mammogram? …
More later. This argument is just heating up. If the cost-benefit experts think they will be deferred to by voters, they are in for a rude surprise. Everyone knows a handful of people who were saved by early detection. …
Cheops' Law Still in Effect
Nothing gets built on time or within budget: Bullet train project nearly triples in cost -- $98.5 billion -- from earlier projections
Faster than a speeding bullet train, the cost of the state's massive high-speed rail project has zoomed to nearly $100 billion -- triple the estimate given to voters and more than enough to run the entire state government for a year.Cheops (also called Khufu) was Pharaoh of Egypt ca. 2650-2630BC, and builder of the Great Pyramid at Giza.
What's more, bullet trains won't be up and running until at least 2033, much later than the original estimate of 2020, although that depends on the state finding the remaining 90 percent of the funds needed to complete the plan.
The new figures come from a final business plan to be unveiled by the California High-Speed Rail Authority on Tuesday, though some of the details were leaked to the media, including this newspaper, on Monday. Officials at the rail authority did not respond to repeated requests for comment Monday.
Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday was expected to endorse the long-awaited plan, the first major update to the project in two years and the last before the federal deadline to begin construction next year. But state legislators, who were already skeptical, will tear through the plan starting Tuesday before deciding whether to start building, or to kill the project.
The new business plan pegs the price tag at $98.5 billion, accounting for inflation -- more than double the estimate of $42.6 billion from two years ago, when it was already the priciest public works development in the nation. It's a little less than triple the estimate of $33.6 billion voters were told when they approved the project in 2008. By comparison, the total state budget this year is $86 billion.
Who shall doubt the secret hid
Under Cheops’ pyramid
Was that the contractor did
Cheops out of several millions?
Under Cheops’ pyramid
Was that the contractor did
Cheops out of several millions?
- Rudyard Kipling
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Mo Music
Another guitar piece from Alex, on his Taylor 12 String Guitar. His own composition, and as yet unnamed.
Upload MP3s using free MP3 hosting from Tindeck.
Upload MP3s using free MP3 hosting from Tindeck.
Anti-Vaccine Red Necks
The Waldorf School of the Peninsula is an expensive and exclusive private school in Palo Alto, the heart of Silicon Valley:
The Free Waldorf School was founded upon the impulse for social change, upon the need to reform society into a community that takes into account the true Being of Humanity. Into the desire for reform were sown the life-giving forces of the teacher's inner work and Rudolf Steiner's spiritual insight. The goal of this education was that, through living inner work guided by the insights of Rudolf Steiner, the teachers would develop in the children such power of thought, such depth of feeling, such strength of will that they would emerge from their school years as full members of the Human Community, able to meet and transform the world.Our ability to conquer disease though vaccinations and other are one of the West's 6 "killer aps" that made the Western Civilization the dominant culture of the world. The fact that the "best and brightest" in one of our top knowledge based cities are so anti-scientific that they resist the advances of modern medicine and risk their own children's lives on superstitious maundering about the effects of vaccines is just frightening.
The Mysterious Catfish Tumors of South River
A new study found the culprit is not a group of toxins called PAHs that often cause tumors in fish. The cause may be a virus or other contaminant, according to the lead researcher, Fred Pinkney of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Chesapeake Bay Field Office in Annapolis.Hmm. That's news to me. That last I'd heard, PAHs were the prime suspect in this local problem. So where else have they found the tumors?
"If you read detective stories, I imagine we're trying to sift through the evidence," Pinkney said. "Sometimes they give it up easily, sometimes you have to work on them."
The tumor-ridden brown bullhead catfish were first documented in the South River in 2004 after they were found during a separate survey involving other fish. More than half of the fish collected then had unsightly tumors growing around their mouths and 20 percent had liver tumors.
Fish also were collected in the Severn, Rhode and Choptank rivers for analysis. The Severn had a wide range of fish with skin tumors (2 percent to 52 percent). A few Rhode River catfish had skin tumors (6 percent) and almost no skin tumors were found in Choptank catfish.It's not clear from the article whether they examined exposure to PAHs as well as concentrations of PAH in the catfish themselves. PAHs are pretty rapidly metabolized by vertebrates, and it's the intermediates of their metabolism which do most of the damage. I'm sure the USFW people understand that, but it certainly didn't come out clearly in the article.
Scientists performed a variety of tests on the fish, including looking at their DNA, to determine the cause of the tumors. They did not find a correlation between the tumors and the presence of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, chemicals found in gas, oil, coal, car exhaust and runoff from highways. They also didn't find a link between the tumors and another group of chemicals called alkylating agents.
There's a big slug of trace metals in the South River too, but they're mostly natural.
Lord Monckton Visits MD
The message coming from presenters at the Carroll County Board of Commissioners' environmental summit was clear: the state's proposed growth doctrine, PlanMaryland, is very, very wrong.For those not familiar with him, Lord Monckton is an English Lord well known in the global warming controversy as a strong proponent of the idea that global warming as a human problem is, well, not. That warming is largely natural, largely beneficial, and not worth the effort to try to choke by CO2 to prevent. He is a tough debater, and well schooled in data and its uses (and abuses no doubt). An example of his taking on some poor advocate on the street:
The summit, which was held Monday at the Pikesville Hilton, featured five presenters who disputed the environmental and economic information in the plan. The speakers covered a wide range of topics, including global warming, the impact of mass transit, septic systems, the Chesapeake Bay and compact development templates.
PlanMaryland, developed by the Maryland Department of Planning, provides a framework that brings the state and local jurisdictions together over which areas are best for growth, preservation or other specific purposes, according to MDP Secretary Richard Hall. The plan includes references to global warming and the impact humans have in changing the climate.
Lord Christopher Monckton, who has previously served as the science policy adviser to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, started the summit with a presentation breaking down the economic and environmental consequences associated with PlanMaryland.
Heavy with statistics and scientific equations, Monckton's presentation provided information demonstrating the extremely high costs of implementing all proposals in the plan. Monckton concluded that it would be 1,844 times more expensive for the state to make global warming go away than it would be to "sit back and enjoy the sunshine."
A large portion of Monckton's presentation focused on rebutting environmental premises in PlanMaryland. Those premises included rising sea levels, worsening coastal storms, temperature change, changing precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures. Monckton described the plan as "ludicrous" and "crazy."
Ginger Recruiting Film
The Gingers have found a new tool for recruiting members; guilt. I wonder how they handle the soul removal, however:
However, I find more compelling arguments to join the "Ginger subversion."
Video found at Althouse, who put it to a slightly more serious use...
Meanwhile, my effusive thanks to The One and Only Wombat over at the The Other McCain, who acknowledged all my Rule 5 ramblings from last week in his weekly canonical Rule 5 compilation.
However, I find more compelling arguments to join the "Ginger subversion."
Video found at Althouse, who put it to a slightly more serious use...
Meanwhile, my effusive thanks to The One and Only Wombat over at the The Other McCain, who acknowledged all my Rule 5 ramblings from last week in his weekly canonical Rule 5 compilation.
OWS: More 'Working Groups' Than People?
With the advent of "Snoctober", and a mass exodus of people from Zuccotti Park, the actual number of people remaining to "occupy" Wall Street stood at somewhere between 50 and 100. However, the number of 'working groups' had multiplied to 79. A quote from Robert Heinlein comes to mind:
A committee is a life form with six or more legs and no brain.
--Lazarus Long
What are conditions in Zuccotti Park like now?
"It's like Valley Forge out there now," a beaming middle-aged finance facilitator named Mercury John told me. "But it's a beautiful day ... We'll keep splashing in the puddles."It's like Valley Forge, without an enemy trying to kill you, with good, free food, good clothes, good shoes, good bedding and without typhoid, pneumonia, dysentery and jaundice. But they are generating similar unsanitary condition, so it may yet become more similar.
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