Drought Brings Good News to Bay

MSN, Maryland enduring fifth-driest year in over a century, but rain is part of forecast at least through Tuesday

This year is the fifth-driest on record for Maryland since 1895, with about 4.7 million residents living in areas of drought, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System.

Some relief began to appear Wednesday as light rain spread across the region, but only about a tenth of an inch had fallen at BWI Marshall Airport as of midafternoon. There is at least a 50% chance of rain every day until Tuesday, according to National Weather Service forecasts.

BWI received about 10.2 inches of rain from January through June, about 9 inches below normal, according to the National Weather Service.

According to the National Integrated Drought Information System’s drought.gov, all of Central and Western Maryland and the upper Eastern Shore is in a moderate drought, while much of Calvert, St. Mary’s, Caroline, Dorchester, Talbot and Queen Anne’s counties are considered abnormally dry. The system is a multiagency partnership that coordinates forecasting, drought monitoring and information at the national, tribal, state and local levels.

Yes, it's dry here, our lawn barely go going after winter, and (until the 2 inches of rain in the last two days) was starting to brown out. But why is it good news for the Bay? Bay Program,  A dry spring brings about a small dead zone, according to annual forecast "The summer dead zone is predicted to be 33% smaller than the long-term average."

If you have plants in your yard, work on a farm or follow weather forecasts regularly then you probably noticed that this year we had a particularly dry spring.

Despite a few storms, the Chesapeake region didn’t get much rain this season, putting a strain on crops and plants. However, that lack of rain does have an upside: due in large part to less stormwater runoff, the Chesapeake Bay dead zone is expected to be one of the smallest on record, which is great news for blue crabs, oysters and fish.

When rain hits the land, it washes nutrient pollution found on farms, yards and streets into the water. Those nutrients cause algae in the water to grow intensely and then quickly die off, which sucks oxygen out of the water. This forms low-oxygen, or hypoxic areas, known as dead zones.

If you’ve ever seen pictures of fish washing up on the shore or observed an unsightly green, brown or reddish film covering the surface of the water, that’s likely due to hypoxic areas and algae blooms. When these areas form, the survival rate of blue crabs, oysters, fish and other aquatic life decreases.

But in 2023, river flows from rainfall were 20% less than average. As a result, the summer dead zone is predicted to be 33% smaller than the average taken between 1985 and 2022.

So, as usual, we see that the health of the Bay, at least on a year to year, and shorter term basis is highly dependent on the weather. While there may be a long term improvement in the Bay, the signal can be easily lost in the interannual noise.