When I got to the beach this afternoon, there were a bunch of pelicans sitting on the jetty, and a few were diving in the water:
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| Nesting pairs of Osprey in 1987 and 2025 |
Dr. Bryan Watts, Director of the Center for Conservation Biology (CCB) at William & Mary, has released an inventory of active osprey nests along Virginia’s Eastern Shore Seaside. His report’s title tells the ugly story: “Osprey Population along the Seaside of the Delmarva Peninsula has Collapsed.” Where a CCB survey in 1987 recorded 83 pairs, this year’s survey recorded only nine pairs between Fisherman Island and the Chincoteague Causeway.
“We’ve been watching them since the 1990s,” Dr. Watts tells us, “ and the loss rate has really ratcheted up in the last few years.” This population collapse is a concern not only for the loss of an iconic, well-loved bird but also for what it says about the condition of this coastal environment that appears otherwise pristine.
Why the failure? Dr. Watts’s careful summary says: “The underlying causes of this population decline are unclear. Although there have been changes in nesting substrates (like duck blinds, dead trees, navigational aids, or nesting platforms) over time, the availability of nesting substrate does not appear to be a primary factor. Suitable structures remain widely available and many substrates that were used for extended periods are now vacant.
“It is possible that bald eagles may have impacted osprey along the seaside. The bald eagle population within the area has more than tripled since the 1980s. However, the density of eagles continues to be a small fraction of that found within the upper tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay where ospreys continue to thrive.”
He goes on to report, “The most likely cause of the decline is prey availability. However, no osprey diet studies have ever been conducted within this site, and we know very little about trends in fish availability. During the 1970s and 1980s, the highest density of nesting pairs was skewed to the southern portion of the area around Fisherman and Mockhorn Islands. These birds could be observed flying out to the mouth of the Chesapeake to forage. Pairs have declined by more than 90% within this portion of the study area.”
When looking for causes, questions arise about the availability of menhaden for ospreys to eat in the “southern portion of the area around Fisherman and Mockhorn Islands.” Some believe menhaden industry giant Omega Protein is competing with the ospreys for their food.
I'm beginning to believe the Osprey population in our Mid Bay region is following the same trajectory, just a few years later. Our local Osprey population seems to have thinned. I only saw a single Osprey plying the waters off our beach today. There were plenty of peanut sized (2-3 inch) Menhaden dead on the beach, it doesn't seem like lack of them is the problem.
So, Stripped Bass are in trouble, crabs are in trouble, and the Ospreys are in trouble. I'm sure satisfied the with $25 billion or so we've dumped into the Bay's bureaucracy in the last 30 years.
Each spring, birders eagerly await the return of ospreys to the Chesapeake Bay—a welcome sight that signals the end of winter. An estimated 8,000 to 12,000 breeding pairs of ospreys live in the Chesapeake Bay, which is home to the largest breeding osprey population in the world. Since ospreys are sensitive to changes in their environment, they serve as a monitor of the health of the Bay.
So, when 2024 breeding performance results released by the College of William & Mary’s Center for Conservation Biology (CCB) showed that osprey chicks continue to starve in their nests in portions of the Bay where they typically depend on menhaden—a small, silvery, nutrient-packed fish—for food, the findings intensified ongoing, decades-long concerns.
According to a press release issued on September 13, 2024, by the CCB, osprey chicks aren’t surviving at rates that sustain the population. A survey monitored 571 osprey pairs in 12 sites in Virginia and Maryland during the nesting season (March through August). Ten study areas were located within the main stem of the Bay, where salinity exceeded 10 parts per thousand (ppt), and ospreys are highly dependent on menhaden. Two additional study areas (used for comparison) were located on upper tributaries within tidal fresh waters, where salinity was less than 1 ppt, and ospreys feed primarily on catfish and gizzard shad.
The generally accepted reproductive rate for population maintenance is 1.15 young/pair. Breeding performance varied between the higher-salinity sites—ranging from minor, moderate, and major deficit. However, the reproductive rate within the tidal freshwater sites was 1.36 young/pair, which is above the maintenance target (surplus).
“It’s clear to researchers that ospreys are struggling due to food stress, but the starvation issue is mostly confined to the main stem of the Bay, where waters are greater than 10 ppt salinity,” says Bryan Watts, Ph.D., director of the CCB. “We do not know why menhaden have become less available to ospreys. The osprey-menhaden issue is a moving target. Some have suggested that ongoing harvest, warming waters, water quality, or other factors are impacting menhaden in the Bay. However, we do know that osprey broods [groups of chicks] are starving in their nests and that there is not enough menhaden in their diet to support sustainable reproductive rates.”
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| Snakehead! It's what's for dinner! |
In addition to starvation, scientists and researchers are also observing uncharacteristic behaviors among ospreys. According to Watts, a large number of osprey pairs didn’t lay clutches during the 2024 nesting season. This is the first time that this behavior has been documented on a large scale within the Chesapeake Bay. Researchers believe that the most likely explanation is that the females didn’t reach the nutritional condition required to produce eggs.
Single-chick broods and asymmetric broods were also widespread throughout the Bay in 2024. Asymmetry develops when food coming into the nest is inadequate to feed all of the chicks—resulting in a dominance hierarchy, which allows the dominant chick to monopolize access to food. Depending on the available food supply, one or all of the chicks may starve.
For what it's worth, I'm beginning to give this hypothesis a little more credence. Ospreys have been noticeably in short supply in our neighborhood this year. I've seen them a couple of times, but usually, by this time of year, Ospreys would be hunting out in front of the beach almost constantly. Ospreys return to the same nest every year, which suggests that one or more pairs failed to return from their winter vacations. I do wonder about the role of Bald Eagles in this matter too. Ospreys bringing food back to the nest have to run the gauntlet of hungry eagles to get to the nest. From what I've observed, about one in ten catches results in a steal from an eagle. If fish are a limiting resource, that could definitely affect the Osprey nesting success.
Also known at Boxing Day.
Jeff Charles at TownHall hears a Poll that Shows Americans Are Hopeful For 2025, and the Reason Why Might Make You Smile. At RedState, Bob Hoge posts the Best Trump Impersonator Delivers Christmas Message That You Won't Want To Miss.
Cutie Pavlich at TownHall, Here's the Final Tally on How Much Money Trump Raised for Hurricane Victims. "President Trump announced over $8 million in donations for victims of Hurricane Helene raised through his dedicated GoFundMe. As reported by Fox Business, President Trump’s Hurricane Helene relief was the top fundraiser on GoFundMe in 2024, and supported nearly 50,000 people across all 50 states and more than 50 countries. These funds were distributed to charities including Samaritan's Purse, Water Mission, Mtn2Sea, the Clinch Foundation, and Sweetwater Mission to uplift impacted families and communities," the Trump transition team released in a statement." Breitbart reports Ford, General Motors to donate to Trump’s inauguration, out of purely altruistic motives, no doubt. 'Bonchie' at RedState hears Anthony Scaramucci on CNN Makes Weird Mob Boss-Esque Threat Against Elon Musk.TRUMP READS: "TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS🎄🇺🇸" pic.twitter.com/N8kAyZoqt2
— Shawn Farash (@Shawn_Farash) December 25, 2024
"He's just got to be very, very careful because he's making enemies that he doesn't realize, and the incentives in Washington are totally different than those in business, and so everybody's incentivized in a different and sometimes irrational way, and I think the power that he's wielding right now, Washington has a great neurological system, and I think they'll find a way to rebut him. So I'd say to Elon Musk, not that he would listen to me, stick to business, you've done great, you've made a couple hundred million dollars since the election. Lay off the gas on politics a little bit because these people can hurt you, and there's no need for you to get hurt. You're doing so well in life."
One should never try to “make sense” of Amanda Marcotte. Ever since she first burst upon the national consciousness in 2007 — as one of two feminists (the other being the execrable Melissa McEwan) hired to blog on behalf of Democratic presidential aspirant John Edwards — Marcotte has been an inspiration for mockery hereabouts, and it is still difficult for me to imagine that anyone actually takes her seriously.
Nevertheless, Dana Pico has undertaken to analyze one of Ms. Marcotte’s recent outbursts, concluding that her enthusiasm for transgender athletes is rooted in a secret fear of inferiority: “To Miss Marcotte, any differences [between men and women] at all are a mark of inferiority, and she just can’t let the facts get in her way.” Yes, exactly so.
Mary Margret Olohan at Da Fed, A Daily Wire Investigation: Are There Really 15K Trans Military Members? "The Defense Department says it does not track how many trans-identifying service members it has."
At Hat Hair, John Sexton hears DEI Supporters: Corporate DEI is a Mess. Because they're not getting everything they want.
Stacy McCain, I know We’re All Shocked — Shocked! — to Discover ‘Men for Kamala’ Are Fake. Da Mail highlights Kamala Harris's MAN PROBLEM! As Obama desperately pleads with black male voters to back her, FREDDY GRAY says: After all the Democrats' man-bashing, it's too little, too late "A suspicion of mine is that there are too many preachy females [in Democratic leadership]…,' Clinton campaign guru James Carville said in March." OTP, WATCH: New Harris Campaign Ad Could Be Worst In History Of Politics. WokeSpy, Kamala Harris’ New Campaign Ad Shows Why She Trails Donald Trump Among Men By Double Digits.
At Twitchy, So ... ABOUT That Men Being Man Enough to Vote for Kamala Ad, Here's Who Those MANLY Men REALLY Are. Insty, IT ISN’T ALWAYS NICE TO MAKE TWITCHY: ABOUT That Men Being Man Enough to Vote for Kamala Ad, Here’s Who Those MANLY Men REALLY Are. “Lanre Idewu is an immigrant from Nigeria. He is also an actor who works at the D.C.-based OCTET Productions. He has many intimate pictures with the Obamas and the Bidens. Idewu, who is bisexual, has done gay-for-pay movies and nude solo shoots. In the “Men for Kamala” ad, he says he is “man enough to f-ing braid his daughter’s hair,” but the only problem is that he doesn’t have a daughter. Idewu isn’t braiding anyone’s hair.” Ace, As Kamala's Polling Stops Bringing Joy, the Campaign Brings In the Big Manly Men to Appeal to Male Voters, The Bee: "Democrats Perplexed Why Candidate Nobody Ever Voted For Is Slipping In The Polls." And, New York Times: It's Time to End Masculinity. All Masculinity. Even the So-Called "Positive Masculinity" Exemplified by Tim Walz and Doug Emhoff. "Do tell." Politico, Walz to launch media blitz to woo male voters. Hat Hair's Beege Welborn snarks All I can say is keep these brilliant plans coming. Matt Margolis at PJM, WATCH: Kamala's Husband Does NOT Deny Assaulting His Ex-Girlfriend. OTP, Second ‘Gentleman’ Shrugs Off Violent History With Women. Dave Marcus at Hat Hair, Whut: Doug Emhoff Calls Smack Talk a 'Distraction'? Insty, I’M SO OLD, I REMEMBER WHEN DISSENT WAS PATRIOTIC.Holy Fuck
— Tim Pool (@Timcast) October 11, 2024
It's like Kamala has never met a man before.
This Kamala ad is epic cringe
pic.twitter.com/jVqYfKG5R2
Once lurching toward extinction, eagles flew off the endangered species list as the number of mating pairs nationwide soared from a low of a few hundred in the 1960s to nearly 10,000 by the late 2000s.
And the Chesapeake Bay region has continued to burnish its reputation as one of the country’s top bald eagle breeding grounds, registering a nearly fivefold leap in paired males and females during the past two decades.
But can there be too much of a good thing? Perhaps so, according to one of the region’s leading avian researchers.
Bryan Watts, founder and director of the Center for Conservation Biology at Virginia’s College of William and Mary, has authored dozens of academic papers on bald eagles over a more than 30-year career. In the past 20 years or so, he said, he has documented a shift in the behavior of adult males during the nesting season.
The change was subtle at first. But as Watts continued to monitor the phenomenon, he realized that he was watching a population grappling with the limits of its recovery.
“It’s a natural part of the recovery process,” he said. “The species are just going to have to work it out for themselves.”
The main cause of the eagles’ near demise half a century ago, experts say, was the widespread use of the pesticide DDT, which caused the shells of eggs to become too thin to withstand incubation. Its banning in 1972, coupled with water pollution crackdowns, habitat restoration and reintroduction programs, are credited with bolstering the rebound.
Along the Chesapeake Bay and the tidal reaches of its rivers, the eagle population exploded. At one point, their numbers were doubling every eight years, Watts said.
“It’s obvious when you’re in that time of ascent, something is going to happen,” he said. “You can’t stuff eagles into little spaces here and there.”
That’s not for lack of trying. Today, eagles are frequently spotted in suburban backyards, airports, farm fields and other places where a generation ago a sighting would have been virtually unthinkable.
“Eagles have shown themselves to be more adaptable than we expected,” Watts said.
But now, he says, they seem to be running out of room in the Bay region. The most notable consequence has been the growing population of so-called “floaters,” breeding-age eagles of either sex with no territory of their own. The crowding has become so intense that researchers now believe that the floater population is six to eight times greater than the breeding population.
Breeding males that do have nests and mates find themselves at near-constant threat of losing them to intruders.
“These things can be bloody fights to the death,” Watts said. “It’s a jungle out there for these birds.”
Females mostly stay in the nest, incubating eggs or, after the hatch occurs, feeding the young. Traditionally, males would spend most of their time hunting food for the nestlings. Sometimes, those males would be found on a nearby perch, guarding their nests from would-be interlopers.
That, though, represented the minority of cases. During the 1999–2004 period, a male sentry was present at only about one-third of the nests that Watts encountered.
By the early 2010s, that figure had jumped to more than 60 percent of nests in the Bay area. By the 2020s, it had surpassed 70 percent. Something was happening, Watts said, and what he suspected was that population pressure had “forced the male … to stay home and protect his nest and his female from these floaters.”
Watts and his colleagues published research about the floaters a decade ago. What wasn’t clear at that time was whether that behavioral change—males bringing less food back to the young—was impacting nesting success. The initial numbers paint a portrait of distress for many eagle pairs.
The typical number of chicks per nest has declined since 1999 from two to one. Watts said he has also observed an uptick in “brood asymmetry”—significant size differences between sibling chicks because one of them is underfed.
“The brood is being trimmed to match the incoming food,” Watts said.
But is he worried? Not in the least. “It’s certainly nothing to be alarmed about,” the longtime researcher said.
The Chesapeake region of today is home to more than 3,000 mating pairs, which represents the largest concentration of eagles in the lower 48 states. Watts said that their numbers remain strong, even in the face of threats like chronic lead poisoning—now known to be widespread in golden and bald eagles.
“The Bay is one of the most productive aquatic ecosystems in the country,” he said. “If you look around the range, there’s nothing really comparable.”
Jeff Cooper, an eagle expert with the Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources, said his biggest concern with the eagle population is trying to minimize conflicts with humans. Discouraging the birds from nesting near airports is a big part of his job these days.
Like Watts, he doesn’t see a problem with fewer young eagles being produced in the Bay’s tidewater region. Nor does he see a need for human intervention.
“[Overpopulation] is probably the primary driver for productivity going down,” Cooper said. “You just let that play out. We’re reaching equilibrium. The population is going to remain large because the Bay can support it.”
We still see eagles fairly often, though I don't believe quite as often as in some years past.
