How Good are Hurricane Season Forecasts?

 WUWT has the Scorecard: How Well Does NOAA’s Hurricane Outlook Actually Perform? 26 Years of Forecasts vs. Reality

Let's check the data:

NOAA’s May outlooks land within their stated range for named storms roughly 17 of 25 years; about 68%, just shy of their own 70% confidence target. The hurricane count accuracy is similar. That said, NOAA aims for a range (not a point forecast), so some “hits” are easier than others in wide-range years.

So, a little better than a coin toss...