The 2026 Bay-wide Blue Crab Winter Dredge Survey show a 46 percent increase in the abundance of blue crabs in Chesapeake Bay, for a total population of 349 million crabs.
“This increase comes despite another cold winter, which increased the overwintering mortality of crabs throughout the bay and caused cold-stun events in several finfish species throughout Virginia. Overall, the results suggest improved conditions for the 2026 crab fishery,” stated a news release from Virginia Marine Resources Commission (VMRC).
The annual Winter Dredge Survey found the total estimated population of blue crabs in Chesapeake Bay increased from 238 million crabs in the winter of 2024-2025 to 349 million crabs in the winter of 2025-2026. This was driven mainly by an increase of 120 percent in juvenile blue crabs, up to 228 million juveniles. Adult male crab abundance also increased, from 26 million to 37 million crabs. The adult female population, however, declined to 81 million. Although, the 349 million is encouraging, historically 1993 survey numbers of 852 million is a bar that has not been reached again since the dredge survey started.
So, more adult males and more juveniles. That's a good sign for this years fishery, and maybe next years, if the Blue Catfish don't eat all the juveniles. But low female crab numbers doesn't bode too well for the year after that.
The increase in juvenile crabs is showing up in Virginia crab pots. Joey William of Remlik, Va. fishes hard crab and peeler pots in the Rappahannock and Piankatank rivers. “I am seeing an abundance of juvenile crabs, the size of a thumbnail, in every pot that I pull,” says Williams. “If these crabs survive, we should have a good year next year.
"This spring we are not seeing the soft-shell and adult crabs that we usually see this time of the year,” says Williams. “I think it is most likely due to the cold winter and extended low water temperatures into May. Usually in May the (peeler) crab runs start and we are shedding 150 to 200 dozen (soft-shell crabs) a night. The best we have done this May so far is 40 dozen a night.”
That's still a lot of peelers, most of which are female.
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