The Monday Morning Stimulus

Good news from the Daily Grind, Coffee News Recap, 20 Feb: Arabica prices drop to lowest levels since August

Coffee prices plunged earlier this week as Conab predicted a bumper 2025/26 harvest for Brazil. Arabica and robusta futures dropped to seven and six-month lows, respectively, as the crop agency announced that it expects Brazil’s 2026 coffee production to reach a record 66.2 million bags. Arabica yields are predicted to increase by 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while robusta production could grow by 6.3% to 22.1 million bags. With Brazil’s largest arabica-growing area, Minas Gerais, receiving ample rainfall these past couple of weeks, coffee prices are expected to continue their downward trajectory.

In other news, the US Department of Agriculture has announced a US$1bn specialty crop programme for US farmers. The assistance programme covers coffee, meaning producers in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and California are entitled to receive one-off payments that will “help address market disruptions, elevated input costs, persistent inflation, and market losses from foreign competitors”, according to the USDA. While the assistance programme is unlikely to increase the market share of US-grown coffee, it could provide necessary support for the country’s specialty coffee producers.