It's Important to Believe the Right Groundhog

Bet against him

 NOAA is Grading the groundhogs

Groundhog Day has been celebrated in the United States since at least February 2, 1886. Starting in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, with its now-famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, the tradition spread throughout America. It is now celebrated all over, and not just with groundhogs. There are also other weather-predicting animals (and stuffed toys), including a duck, an alligator and even a fish!

These furry critters are usually looked to for fun rather than real forecasts. If you’re looking for the real deal, you can find the National Weather Service’s expected long-term forecast here.

Nineteen groundhogs and alternative groundhogs have been selected to participate in this competition, based on the following qualifications:

1. They must have been prognosticating for at least 20 years.
2. They must be active prognosticators as of February 2, 2024.

These groundhogs — along with a tortoise, whose emergence from his winter brumation (hibernation for reptiles) foretells the coming of Spring, and a Prairie dog statue, whose shadow at sunrise predicts how long it will be until Spring arrives — have been graded and ranked based on their accuracy over the past 20 years, using the March temperature averages for the U.S. each year from 2005 to 2024. You can find more information on the contestants hereoffsite link.

I'll skip over the autobiographies and go straight to the results:

I find it amusing that the most famous, Punxsatawney Phil, is near the bottom of the ranking at 35% accuracy, and is in, fact, out performed by 3 dead groundhogs, an invisible groundhog, and a Prairie Dog statue. I'm not really surprised, however. It's just random.