Chesapeake "Zone of Death" Expected to Be Small This Year

 WBOC, Chesapeake Bay’s annual “dead zone” expected to be relatively mild in summer 2026

The Chesapeake Bay’s “dead zone” is expected to be relatively mild this summer, according to a forecast published this week by various Maryland and Virginia institutions. The Below-average nutrient runoff is expected to mean better conditions for Bay marine life.

Scientists at William & Mary’s Batten School & VIMS, FlowWest and the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science shared their findings this week.

If you're reading this, I'll give you credit for basic knowledge of what the "zone of death" is, and what causes it. 

The forecasted dead zone is expected to be one of the smallest on record — ranking in the bottom 10% since monitoring began in 1985 and roughly a third smaller than average.

“This year’s forecast suggests that the Chesapeake Bay may experience one of its milder dead zones in recent decades,” said Aaron Bever, senior managing scientist with FlowWest. “Lower nitrogen loads entering the Bay this spring are expected to translate into better oxygen conditions for fish, crabs, oysters and other Bay life this summer.”

According to this forecast, this year’s mild outlook is largely due to low river flows and reduced nitrogen pollution entering the Bay from earlier in the year. According to the Chesapeake Bay Program, when heavy rainfall does occur, rainwater travels to rivers and streams and picks up nutrients, which can fuel algal blooms.

Well, according to real scientists, too. 

Summer weather could still affect the dead zone's size and duration. Scientists note that heavy rain, heat waves or prolonged calm periods are hard to predict and could shift the size and duration of the dead zone.

Well, we are in a drought.