Menhaden Science Unsettled

 23 News Now, New menhaden assessment signals potential catch reductions in Chesapeake Bay

A new scientific assessment released this week shows that Atlantic menhaden populations are significantly lower than previously estimated, potentially prompting major reductions in catch limits along the East Coast.

According to the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC), updated coastwide stock assessments indicate the overall biomass of menhaden, a small, schooling fish critical to marine food webs, has declined by 37 percent compared to earlier estimates. The findings suggest that current harvest levels may be unsustainable, and forecasts indicate catch limits may need to be cut by half to give the species a better than 50 percent chance of recovery.

The ASMFC’s menhaden management board is scheduled to meet on October 28 to review the new data and consider potential changes to the fishery’s catch limits. The board will also continue discussions on how to manage menhaden harvests in the Chesapeake Bay, where ecological warning signs have been growing.

Menhaden serve as an important food source for many species, including osprey, whales, and striped bass. In recent years, research from the Center for Conservation Biology at William & Mary and the U.S. Geological Survey has linked declining osprey chick survival rates in parts of the Chesapeake Bay to reduced availability of menhaden.

While the new coastwide assessment includes updates to mortality and population estimates, it does not specifically evaluate the effects of concentrated fishing activity within the Bay. A separate study focused on the Chesapeake Bay menhaden population has been delayed, reportedly due to lobbying efforts by Omega Protein, the Virginia-based company that operates the nation’s largest menhaden fishery.

Omega Protein harvests more than 100 million pounds of menhaden annually in Virginia waters, primarily for fish oil and animal feed. The company has not yet commented publicly on the new assessment.

Local bait fishermen have also reported sharp declines in their catch, which fell from 5.4 million pounds in 2019 to less than 1 million pounds in 2024, according to the Virginia Marine Resources Commission.

Public concern over the issue has been growing. Recent bipartisan polling found that more than 90 percent of Virginians support measures to ensure more menhaden remain in the Bay.

In a statement, Chesapeake Bay Foundation Forage Campaign Manager Will Poston said the new data “confirms the alarm bells we’ve been hearing for years” and urged regulators to follow the science and reduce coastwide harvest levels.

My personal, unscientific observation is that the large schools of adult Menhaden that we used to see in our waters are all but absent in the last 10 years.  We still see a lot of "peanut" sized bunker, 2-3 inches. Hardly big enough for an Osprey to be worth diving on.