PA Finds Federal Models "Exponentially" Overestimate Susquehanna Pollution

From the York Daily Record, New testing data show PA DEP vastly overestimated water pollution in York County streams

In 2019, the state Department of Environmental Protection reported that York County was the second-highest contributor to pollutants entering the Susquehanna River and the Chesapeake Bay.

The DEP's estimate was based on computer modeling used by the federal government to determine levels of nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment flowing from the county's streams into the river and the bay.

 

The revelation prompted the county to improve its water-quality monitoring system, entering an agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey to install a state-of-the-art water monitoring system - the first of its kind in the nation - to collect and track data. Instead of relying upon computer models, the system of six monitoring stations along the Susquehanna would collect and compile test results.

On Earth Day, the county held a press conference to announce the results of the first four years of the decade-long testing program and said they showed that the county's water pollutant levels were significantly lower than the DEP's estimates, which county officials described as "exponentially" overstated.

“We have long suspected that the water pollutant numbers reported by DEP were not accurate, and we now have the data that shows we were correct,” Wade Gobrecht, director of the York County Planning Commission, said at the news conference at Fishing Creek in Goldsboro. “Through this first-of-its-kind collaboration with the USGS, we have real-time data collected over a four-year timeframe, which show unequivocally that our waterways are cleaner than what had previously been reported. Moving forward, we believe this approach will ensure we are relying on accurate data to help drive our water quality improvement efforts."

A wise man once said, "All models are wrong, but some  are useful." If the model is dramatically wrong about York County, what are the chances it's way off about all the other tributaries? This has far reaching implications for the Chesapeake Bay cleanup. Maybe, just maybe, agriculture is not as serious a problem as EPA has been touting, and we need to revisit the "Bay Diet" goals.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the modelers knew, or suspected the models over stated agricultural contributions, but didn't make necessary adjustments because they and/or their bosses wanted more regulation of agriculture. 

The Wombat has Rule 5 Sunday: In & Out up at The Other McCain.