Maryland, My Maryland

Salena Zito at WaEx claims Republican Hogan enjoys big support among Maryland’s working-class voters

CUMBERLAND, Maryland — When former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan won the Republican primary race last month for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, many experts speculated that would be his high-water mark and everything would go downhill from there.

Case in point: When Angela Alsobrooks emerged as the winner of the Democratic primary, Politico reported that the Prince George’s County executive was on the precipice of making history as Maryland’s first black senator.

It was a theme that went across the media spectrum, dismissing Hogan’s chances despite the fact that a Hogan victory would be a little history-making as well because it’s been decades since a Republican has won a Senate seat in Maryland.

While there has been no fresh polling in the past month, there is no indication Hogan is astronomically or even slightly behind Alsobrooks in voters’ minds. Indeed, he may even be ahead.

When former President Donald Trump said a little over a week ago that he would like to see Hogan, a frequent critic of the former president’s comportment, win the race, those same experts went a bit apoplectic with stories that Trump’s endorsement would end the former governor’s chances in the deep blue state.

Again, there is no polling, so there is no indication of what, if any, impact there has been either way, yet the deconstruction of the Trump effect went on for days.

The more interesting story that does have the potential of materially affecting this race is the steady stream of union and labor support Hogan has been accumulating since the moment he won the primary, including the International Longshoremen’s Association Local 333. There were even longshoremen in attendance at a Hogan event who had been in an ad supporting Alsobrooks’ Democratic primary opponent, Rep. David Trone (D-MD). This support for Hogan from otherwise Democratic union members could be significant.

I think this is generally true. Hogan had built a pretty strong constituency among blue collar voters in Maryland before term limits forced him out of office. I believe this will largely carry forward, and given Trump's popularity with independents I don't think Trump's endorsement will hurt him. He's doing a lot of advertising on the border issue, and I think this will play well in this community, too.

As I have said, over and over, I support Hogan not because he is the best possible Republican in Maryland, but because he his the Republican that might win in Maryland.