It Couldn't Happen to a Nicer Town

Baltimore’s Population Is Shrinking For Some Entirely Obvious Reasons

The official census won’t take place until 2020, but all of the states and major municipalities have yearly population data which gives them a good idea which direction they are heading. Baltimore, Maryland is no exception and both Charm City and the Old Line State are preparing for another dip in their headcount as compared to other parts of the country. That’s bad news, both in terms of congressional representation and federal resource allocation. But why is it happening?

David Placher, writing at the Baltimore Sun, offers some of the obvious reasons for the decline and then goes one step further by suggesting some solutions. First we tackle the puzzle as to why people are leaving and others are less willing to move to Baltimore. The easiest answer is that one that’s in the news regularly. Baltimore is in the running for being the murder capital of the United States. This isn’t just draining their population via so many people being the guests of honor at funerals. It also makes others think more seriously about heading where there are fewer bullets flying around.
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The city’s scary record of 343 homicides in 2017 affirms the city’s well-known reputation as a dangerous place to live. Even if 2018 has fewer homicides, it doesn’t take a fortune teller to predict that this year’s homicide rate will be high. Until the city substantially reduces its homicide and other crimes rates, people will continue to view the city as dangerous and be reluctant to stay or move here.

The city’s outrageous property tax of $2.248 per $100 of a property’s assessed value is more than double of its surrounding jurisdictions: Baltimore County, $1.10, and Anne Arundel 90.7 cents. The city’s burdensome property tax on homeowners explains why the city has more renters than homeowners. The city’s high income tax is 3.2 percent, the maximum allowed by law. Baltimore County’s is 2.83 and Anna Arundel’s is 2.56. The city’s tax message is clear: Move here and pay higher taxes.

Calvert County's property tax rate is 97.2 cents, and the income tax is 3.0%. I'm hoping to see these drop once the Dominion gas export facility at Cove Point comes on line, as it is expected to pay some $40 million per year in taxes.

Beyond the taxes, David notes that the city’s public school system is “a disaster.” Some schools produced zero students who met the state minimum proficiency levels in math last year. Zero students. Further, the infrastructure is rotten, with regular water main breaks, potholes and sinkholes which make roads a nightmare and buildings untrustworthy. At the same time, residents watched the mayor and city council vote themselves pay raises last year.

But these may not be the most important reason. Baltimore stinks. I mean, literally, you can smell it before you can see it.