Tuesday, January 6, 2015

CBF Downgrades Bay for Politics

It's that time of the year for the various NGOs, state and federal agencies around the Bay to start coming out with their annual "state of the Bay" ratings.  Chesapeake Bay Foundation released its yesterday:

Chesapeake Bay health not improved from 2012, according to CBF
The Chesapeake Bay Foundation rated the Bay's overall health last year, based on an assessment of pollution, habitat and fisheries, as a D+ — a score unchanged from its 2012 condition. The organization's annual State of the Bay report, released Monday, showed some improvements in pollution reduction, but these were offset by declines in fisheries.

CBF President William C. Baker said that the Bay watershed is still “a system dangerously out of balance” and called for the agriculture sector specifically to “do more” to help clean up the Chesapeake. “Agriculture is the largest sector of pollution coming into the Bay, but it is the least expensive to control,” Baker said.

The foundation, which has been pushing EPA and the Bay watershed states to implement strategies to reduce nitrogen, phosphorous, and sediment pollution from multiple sources, uses the annual report card to track 13 metrics — from water clarity to forest buffers — which it ranks on a scale of zero to 100.

A score of 100 represents an unspoiled ecosystem at the time of Captain John Smith’s exploration of the Bay in the early 1600s. The 2014 D+ represents a total score of 32.
I take a skeptical point of view on the value of such ratings. Clearly it is not in the self-interest of CBF and similar groups to be too optimistic about the state of the Bay, since their fund raising and salaries depend on selling the bay as a horrid mess to contributers, but at the same time, holding out hope that their contributions can make the difference.

However, I don't disagree with the result; the state of the Bay has not improved materially over the past several years, and striper fishing has gotten worse, as noted in recent tightening of the recreational and commercial limits for 2015, but I'd like to note a very interesting point in their rating system
CBF gave a 12-point boost last year for dissolved oxygen, which is necessary to sustain fish, crabs, and other species, and lesser improvements in water clarity, oyster populations, and underwater grasses. However, these gains were offset by declines in the population of rockfish and blue crabs as well as inadequate reductions in phosphorous. (my bold)
They haven't really had time yet to evaluate actual reductions of phosphorus into the bay yet (I'm sure the last six months or so's worth of samples are sitting around in freezers somewhere, let alone analyze the data), but they saying they are rating it on what they consider inadequate regulations on phosphorus use imposed on on agriculture. In other words, they are downgrading the Bay in part not because the Bay got materially worse, but because they didn't get their way on phosphorus regulations.

Which brings us to an interesting notion. All we have to do to get the Bay to the C+ rating is to give the CBF everything it wants in terms of regulation, and the Bay will automatically pass, regardless of whether it really improves.

Additional takes on the CBF report:

Associated Press  - Report: Water improves in Chesapeake Bay; fisheries drop
The Washington Post  - Chesapeake Bay’s overall health remains largely unchanged, report finds
The (Annapolis, Md.) Capital Gazette  - Chesapeake Bay report card grade remains D , despite some good pollution news
The (Hampton Roads) Virginian-Pilot - Chesapeake Bay's health barely gets passing score
The (Easton, Md.) Star Democrat - CBF releases State of the Bay Report
The (Fredericksburg, Va.) Free Lance-Star - Report says the Chesapeake Bay is improving in areas but there is still reason for concern
The (Boulder, Co.) Public News Service - Update on Health of Chesapeake Bay Fragile
CBS Baltimore (Md.) TV -  Report: Water Improves In Chesapeake Bay; Fisheries Drop
WYPR (Baltimore, Md.) 88.1 FM - Chesapeake Bay is Getting Better, Sort Of
WBOC-16 (Salisbury, Md.) - Chesapeake Bay Foundation Releases 2014 Report Card, Says Phosphorous Management Tool Needed
WMDT-47 (Salisbury, Md.) - Local experts weigh in on State Of The Bay report

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